Nigeria: Outsourcing Leadership Amid Health Concerns

Nearly 20 years ago, while campaigning for his party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party, outgoing president Olusegun Obasanjo addressed rumors about the health of his chosen successor. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, then governor of Katsina State, was said to be in a hospital in Germany. From the podium, Obasanjo called out, "Umoru, are you dead?!" It was clear he expected an answer from a living person.

Yar’Adua was thankfully alive. He returned just in time to be declared the winner of a presidential election in 2007, which many described as "a charade". His time in office was marked by worries about his health until he passed away in May 2010.

Presidential health issues are not new in Nigeria.

Ibrahim Babangida was just 46 when he was flown abroad for medical treatment in 1986. Nigerians were told he had "Radiculopathy", a complicated term that made many newsrooms consult medical manuals.

In November 2009, President Yar’Adua needed treatment overseas for "Acute Pericarditis".

During his first term as civilian president from 2015 to 2019, Muhammadu Buhari spent 407 days outside Nigeria, with about 242 days, nearly 60% of that time dedicated to health trips abroad. He was 72 at his inauguration, an age when many face health problems.

Four key points arise from these situations. First, the health of a president is a valid public concern.

Second, like everyone else, presidents can get sick. Babangida and Yar’Adua were younger than President Tinubu is today, regardless of his actual age.

Third, there was a time when presidential aides felt they should share information about the president's health. That seems to be a thing of the past.

Fourth, no matter the president's health, Nigeria must avoid a leadership gap.

The issues of power and succession during the final days of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua's presidency highlighted this point.

In response, the National Assembly made a constitutional amendment to keep the country functioning when a president needs to step away for health reasons. The president just needs to temporarily transfer power to the Vice President and inform the National Assembly.

Current concerns about the health of the sitting president suggest a presidency stuck in a pattern, or as the Punch newspaper puts it, treating constitutional rules as an "ornamental" bother.

In his 41 months in office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has spent over 270 days, about 22%, outside the country. This includes over 100 days on 13 different trips to France. Many believe his frequent visits to France are related to health issues.

Instead of temporarily handing over power as the constitution allows, it seems he may prefer to outsource it. To whom is not clear, but examples from other countries may provide insight.

In a study from 1999, Herbert Abrams wrote about the United States saying, "Presidential infirmity, with a lack of full public information, has marked our history for the past two hundred years. Fourteen of the eighteen American presidents in the twentieth century had significant health issues while in office, often concealed or downplayed to the public."

Take Dr. Woodrow Wilson, the 28th president, who led the U.S. during World War I and helped create the League of Nations. After signing the Treaty of Versailles in July 1919, he focused on persuading Americans to join the League.

On October 2, 1919, President Wilson suffered a stroke. Medical records later revealed that the stroke was so severe that he could only achieve a minimal recovery.

Yet, as described by Christopher Andrew in his 1995 book, For the President’s Eyes Only, Wilson’s second wife helped to "suppress accurate information about his health and ensure he remained in office until 1921."

Across the ocean, the health of Vladimir Ilich Lenin was also manipulated. In 1922, Lenin gave Josef Stalin significant power in the Communist Party. Soon after, Lenin suffered a massive stroke in December 1922. To protect Lenin, the Politburo allowed him to work only 10 minutes a day.

When Stalin found out Lenin was doing more work, he warned Lenin’s wife, Nadezhda Krupskaya, that if she didn’t stop him, "the Central Committee would appoint someone else as Lenin’s wife."

In France, President Georges Pompidou insisted he only had a common cold until he died of cancer in 1974.

In 1981, his successor, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, lost to Francois Mitterrand. That same year, Mitterrand learned he had prostate cancer that had spread to his bones. He declared it a state secret, hiding it even from his wife, and won a second term in 1988, claiming he was in good health.

During a debate in 1988, Mitterrand faced a more pressing issue than his opponent: his bladder desperately needed relief.

As the Washington Post mentioned in January 1996, "Mitterrand’s cancer worsened in late 1994, leaving him unable to perform his duties and mostly resting in bed." After his death in January 1996, his doctor published a book, Le Grand Secret, detailing this deception. The French authorities banned the book for breaching medical confidentiality.

Closer to home, Tunisia’s first president Habib Bourgiba chose to stay in power after being diagnosed with arteriosclerosis in 1983. In November 1987, Bourgiba, already suffering from dementia, gave a shocking speech about his health. His former prime minister, General Zine Abdine Ben-Ali, removed Bourgiba from power for medical reasons.

In 1994, after Dr. Hastings Banda was overthrown as Malawi’s leader, the court found him unfit for trial. He had been "senile for years". Yet, for 31 years, he ruled as the all-knowing Ngwazi. Real power was with his "Official Hostess", Mama Cecilia Kadzamira, and her uncle, John Tembo.

In Malawi, a deceased president was falsely reported as just unwell. When President Bingu wa Mutharika died on April 5, 2012, the presidency claimed he "had taken ill and was flown to South Africa for treatment."

Despite what medical dictionaries may say, history teaches us one clear lesson: health issues can lead to outsourcing presidential power under a "bodyguard of lies." Nigeria was meant to have learned from this in 2010, but it seems the lessons have been forgotten.