Tinubu's Presidency: A Deep Dive into His Impact

This morning, we are at the public launch of the book, Tinubu: From Renewed Hope to Despair; written by Abubakar Siddique Mohammed, Aliyu Sanusi, Alkasum Abba and Massoud Omar. The event was meant to happen yesterday at Arewa House in Kaduna, which is run by Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. But due to "pressures from above", the university canceled the booking. The organizers then tried other hotels in Kaduna, but they refused to host them, saying they had been warned. This shows how closed our civic space is today. Nevertheless, the organizers decided to go to the headquarters. They held the event at the Yar’Adua Centre. They have an important story to share about our President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu is in a tight race with Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) for the title of the most consequential president in Nigeria’s history since independence. He is very different from his predecessor Muhammadu Buhari, who lived in Aso Rock for eight years but did not truly govern the country. I have mentioned many times during Buhari's time that when a president refuses to govern, others will step in to fill the gap. IBB had a strong influence on Nigeria's political culture, but I doubt his impact is as significant as Tinubu's. Don't just take my word for it; read the book being presented today. As people say, one reading will convince you.

Tinubu claims he was meant to govern Nigeria. Many thought he wanted to enjoy the good food and comfort of Aso Rock. I am trained at Ahmadu Bello University, so I don't know much about spirits. If you want to know more about that, ask my friend Dr Rueben Abati. Nigerians wrongly thought he came to enjoy his time there. What we are realizing now is that he came to change Nigeria by breaking down its democracy, ending federalism, and establishing one-man rule. He didn’t start this process, but he is working hard to finish it.

Since 1999, the Fourth Republic has been in place. Over these years, our democratic process has lost its essence. One way to see what has happened is to look at how reckless political groups have created a situation where Nigeria faces a serious threat to its constitutional principle of separation of powers. The checks and balances among the branches of government have been weakened. The separation of powers splits government duties into three branches, legislative (makes laws), executive (enforces laws), and judicial (interprets laws). This system is supposed to ensure checks and balances to prevent tyranny, protect individual rights, and promote government accountability.

Under President Tinubu, the legislative branch is nearly completely under the control of the executive branch. The judiciary has lost both its independence and integrity. The checks on the executive's power have been dismantled, and he runs the government as he wishes with no accountability or respect for the people's welfare. Institutions have been weakened, compromised, and brought under the control of the executive arm. This loss of institutional independence has caused public distrust to reach an all-time high, creating a crisis of political exclusion and impunity that is pushing violent extremism, organized crime, and community conflict to the edge.

As Tinubu seeks a second term to finish his agenda of deepening the transition from “Hope to Despair”, it is key to understand his strengths and skills. Past presidents from Shagari to Buhari needed to rely on financiers and godfathers to fund their campaigns. But Tinubu had the resources to fully finance his 2023 campaign himself, which means he has no stakeholders with a voice in the system. Now that he has control over the treasury, there is no group to bring different views to the table. There are only people who work for him at his pleasure. Our confidence as defenders of democracy that we could stop military rulers like Babangida and Abacha from establishing one-man rule has been shattered by Tinubu's tight grip on power. I have written several articles on how the National Assembly fought for its independence. Today, we see a National Assembly that proudly does not even discuss executive bills; it simply passes them without debate, expecting only financial compensation.

The situation with the judiciary is even worse. It has been weakened by corruption, and for issues that are not politically important, the highest bidder wins automatically. When there is a political stake, the government’s position always wins. The judiciary is participating in dismantling democracy by ignoring the rule of law. The Nigerian Bar Association, which used to defend human rights and the rule of law, has now lost its voice and purpose.

The biggest problem facing Nigerian democracy today is how the Tinubu Administration is using its power to ensure there is no fair competition for political parties. President Tinubu knows how opposition parties can unite, overcome their differences, and come together around a single candidate to defeat an incumbent president. He played a key role between 2013 and 2015, when opposition parties formed an alliance, agreed on a candidate, and succeeded in defeating a sitting president in 2015. Because he knows how it works, he is determined not to let what he did to another person happen to him.

Since 2023, Tinubu's political strategy has been to apply tactics that split and absorb opposition parties by encouraging internal conflicts and luring key members to join the ruling party. This approach cannot last because there are limited positions within the ruling party. Giving new members many benefits would mean depriving those already in the party, which could create a crisis for the ruling party itself. This situation motivated opposition parties to strategize towards forming a united front against the APC in the 2027 elections, called the African Democratic Congress (ADC). By making it difficult for opposition parties to function, the ruling party believes it can maintain control until the elections. But this is not guaranteed, as Tinubu is discovering that there are many negatives in his record as a leader, making it hard to campaign for a second term.

The effects of Tinubu's rule are not just about democracy. The book on Tinubu: From Renewed Hope to Despair gives a detailed analysis of the damage to our federal system, national unity, uneven infrastructure development, economic crisis, and rising poverty. Reading the book sends chills as it reveals no positives in Tinubu's governance, only negatives. Insecurity is growing across the country, and the government's only solution seems to be to ask the Americans to come and solve our security issues. As security worsens, we see uneven development. I was always upset with Buhari’s biased approach to governance and favoritism.

The authors provide statistics showing that federal appointments have become the most imbalanced in our history. It doesn’t stop there. Infrastructure projects are now mainly in Lagos and the South West. Federal agencies are moving key operations to Lagos. It looks like the official policy is to tear Nigeria apart. Meanwhile, Nigeria's debt has reached an unmanageable level. The data they provide tells a sad story of policy reform that has increased poverty and malnutrition in the country. While the government talks about successful reforms, the people only see a rise in suffering. The authors highlight credible data that shows a failure in policy reforms.

Another serious consequence of Tinubu’s rule is the complete submission of Nigeria’s interests to American power. Since he took office, the President has been actively seeking close ties with the Americans. He has chosen to give in to American influence at a time when that power is declining and even collapsing. We are becoming close allies with a country that recently sent military forces to kidnap President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela. Why are we so friendly with a country that has tried to completely remove Iran's leadership only to learn that Iranians resist foreign dominance?