What Happened in Osun Elections and Adeleke's Next Moves

The money that politicians did not spend in Osun during the August 15 governorship election was money they didn’t have and couldn’t steal. Many figures have been thrown around, from hundreds of millions to billions. It is hard to tell if these are too high or too low. But it was a lot of money!

Reliable sources say that the main opposition party, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), may have spent nearly ₦40 billion. Davido told News Central it was ₦110 billion, mainly through donations from 20 governors and at least 50 members of the National Assembly, who were in the state for four days.

The Accord Party and its supporters also wanted to match that spending. Besides offering ₦50,000 per voter, two sources told me that Afrobeats star Davido, who is expected to make about $20 million in 2023 from royalties, tours, and endorsements, allegedly gave his uncle ₦10 billion directly.

For every social media clip of voters celebrating for refusing money from one group or the other, there were many more people across the state, from Osogbo to Ede and from Ejigbo to Ilesa and Ife, who quietly accepted their share and watched.

Osun gets an average of ₦20.4 billion every month from its main source, the Federation account. Given that it is also known for having many happy civil servants, it is surprising that the local economy has not been overwhelmed by all this money.

Besides the influence of money in the recent poll in Osun, I also wanted to understand the role of civil servants, who support government; the impact of defectors and the withdrawal of support by top Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members in Osun; and why reelected Governor Ademola Adeleke continues to back President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for reelection in January 2027.

The civil service in Osun is not as pure, or innocent, as people often believe. Sure, there are exceptions. But the ups and downs the system has experienced since 1999 have hurt it more than the public wants to admit. The scars were clear on Saturday.

Under Governor Bisi Akande, between 1999 and 2003, the government fired at least 3,000 civil servants, which caused a lot of anger among the unions. This experience led many to switch from the “progressive” Alliance for Democracy to the PDP in 2003.

Then came Governors Rauf Aregbesola and Gboyega Oyetola of the APC, who had strict policies that included paying civil servants half salaries at odd times and delaying pensions and gratuity.

Why did the opposition fall apart? How did what seemed like a strong group, including Hon. Oluwole Oke (APC Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency), Senator Francis Fadahunsi, the Olagunsoye Oyinlola-led PDP, and Governor Hope Uzodimma, who promised to take Adeleke down, vanish suddenly? Three main things seem to have happened.

Oyetola overstepped his bounds by relying too much on his closeness to the presidency when he should have been careful. This led to him and the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, falling into the trap set for Adeleke.

This overreach was not just Oyetola’s problem. The Edo State Governor, Okpebholo, also made comments that upset many Osun voters. They responded by sharing his school certificate results on social media and sending him packing from Osogbo.

Second, there was also fighting within the ranks, partly due to Oyetola’s heavy-handedness and partly because long-time APC members suspected that newcomers like Fadahunsi were only there to benefit.

And third, as I noted last week, the long-standing disappointment with the APC in Osun, along with the loyalty of APC leader Iyiola Omisore, helped Adeleke gain the needed support.

Adeleke was lucky that the different opposition groups against him on August 15, from the divided APC to the troublesome PDP and the weakened ADC, turned on each other. But in Nigerian politics, alliances can shift quickly, and old enemies can return in new forms.

Why does Adeleke keep supporting Tinubu, even with many of his supporters, including Davido, against it due to the governor’s poor treatment by the ADC? It all comes down to loyalty. Osun has 12 seats in the National Assembly, and the Accord Party currently controls seven.

If Adeleke were to switch to the APC now, he could lose his advantage. Trading party seats for 2027 might not be in his favor or weaken his negotiating power. Keeping his momentum going into next year might boost his hold on National Assembly seats from seven to maybe nine or more, and also give him a strong majority in the state assembly.

If he starts to oppose Tinubu now, and if the President wins reelection in January, Adeleke risks facing federal power that could weaken his hold over federal lawmakers and lead to a state assembly that might try to impeach him.

The technology used by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Saturday worked fairly well, despite some reported issues. There was also heavy security, and active voter and public watchfulness helped keep many alert.

Adeleke knows that next year’s general election will test all these factors, making states of federal interest more vulnerable. In a contest with so much uncertainty, the governor might be safer in Tinubu’s camp.

His respect for Abuja helps him keep APC leaders at bay, even though many of his supporters are unhappy with him.