APC Wins Big in By-elections: What Does This Mean for 2027?

The All Progressives Congress (APC) won four out of five legislative by-elections on September 19, 2026. This victory across Gombe, Kano, Bauchi, and Delta states has sparked discussions about how this might affect the 2027 general elections, writes CHIMA AZUBUIKE.

On that day, by-elections took place in five areas: Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency in Gombe State; Dawakin Kudu State Constituency in Kano State; Disina and Sakwa State Constituencies in Bauchi State; and Udu State Constituency in Delta State. The APC claimed four of the five seats. The Allied Peoples Movement (APM) won the Sakwa constituency in Zaki Local Government Area in Bauchi State.

In Gombe, Usman-Kallamu Maijama’a from the APC won the Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency by-election with 41,121 votes. The Labour Party received 3,553 votes, while the APM got 872 votes.

In Kano, APC candidate Husseini Datti took the Dawakin Kudu State Constituency by-election with 22,890 votes. The Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) got 270 votes, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) polled 108 votes. The Action Democratic Party, Action Peoples Party, and Labour Party received 89, 53, and 39 votes respectively.

Delta also saw an APC win, with Okolosi Ator securing the Udu State Constituency with 8,724 votes. The PDP managed only 214 votes.

In Bauchi, APC candidate Yakubu Ali won the Disina State Constituency election with 5,846 votes, just ahead of the APM candidate who got 5,225 votes. The PRP received 3,701 votes.

In contrast, APM candidate Adamu Yakubu defeated the APC in Sakwa State Constituency with 8,515 votes. The APC got 3,771 votes, the PDP had 2,076, and the PRP recorded 727 votes. This outcome means the APC won four of the five seats while the APM took one.

Supporters of the APC see this as proof of the party's strength before the 2027 elections. But is the September 19 result really a hint of what will happen in the 2027 general election?

The APM’s win in Sakwa is especially notable. Governor Bala Mohammed switched from the PDP to the APM. Some believe this shows his political strength. Others argue this shows that a strong opposition can defeat the ruling party. But whether this local success can grow nationwide is another matter.

Cliff Stanley, a political analyst in Gombe, warns that by-elections shouldn’t be seen as a clear prediction for the 2027 general elections. But he adds that the results are politically significant. He says, "For me, the major lesson from the results is that the APC seems to have strong grassroots support in some of these states and constituencies."

Stanley also said, "APC’s wins in Gombe, Kano, Delta, and one constituency in Bauchi indicate the party’s ability to organize and mobilize voters locally. Yet Bauchi shows a different story. The APC won Disina, but the APM took Sakwa, which shows that politics in the state is still competitive."

Some analysts believe the by-elections revealed that opposition parties split their votes, helping the ruling APC. Musa Maishanu, an analyst from the North-East, pointed out that the lack of focused politics hurt the opposition's chances.

He said, "To tell the truth, even our party (PRP), which has its identity, was taken over by those raised by PDP and APC."

Nworisa Michael, a Kano resident and Coordinator of the Inter-tribe Community Support Forum, said the split among opposition parties could hurt their chances in elections.

He noted, "What happened in Kano's recent poll shows what we might see in 2027. We don’t have an opposition party strong enough to challenge the APC-led government because the division among opposition groups favors the current government."

Michael added, "Some people celebrated the outcome of Osun where Accord won. I said then that whoever is happy with Osun's result should also be ready for whatever happens in 2027. This is because many voters applied for their PVCs, and those who did collect are not voting. Comparing accredited voters to those who voted in Osun shows this. The split of votes among opposition is worrying."

Abdulazeez Labaran, the Coordinator of Youth O’clock Nigeria, believes the APC's wins were due to the absence of major opposition parties like the PDP in the elections.

He said, "APC faced parties without strong structures in the federal constituency. I wish major opposition parties had participated; they would have learned something to prepare for 2027."

Low voter turnout was again a major issue. INEC National Commissioner Rear Admiral Jamila Abubakar-Sadiq (retd.) expressed concern while monitoring the Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency election.

She said, "The election was peaceful. People came out in some areas, but I noticed low voter turnout."

When asked if distance or lack of awareness caused the low turnout, she replied, "I don’t think so. I believe they are just taking their time to come out."

Analysts say low turnout can highlight the advantage of parties with good mobilization structures. If fewer voters participate, a well-organized party can greatly influence the results.

Technology use in the elections was also scrutinized. The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) worked well in some places but faced issues in others. In Gombe, the INEC National Commissioner reported that the BVAS machines were functioning well in the polling units checked. However, Delta had some BVAS problems.

For 2027, INEC’s challenge will be more than just using technology. They must ensure it works consistently across many polling units. INEC’s results portal shows the scale of this task. The five September elections involved 1,666 expected result sheets: 903 for Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye, 303 for Dawakin Kudu, 265 for Udu, 100 for Sakwa, and 95 for Disina.

The general election will be on a much larger scale.

So, the lessons from these by-elections matter for future elections, even if they don't predict voting behavior directly. INEC Chairman Joash Amupitan also called the by-elections a chance to learn for the 2027 general elections. This makes the September elections significant for the institution.

Another important issue from the September elections is the difference between winning an election and being approved by the public.

Victor Ojei, a social activist from Delta, questioned if an election win means the public approves of government actions.

He said, "Winning an election is not the same as winning the people. The recent by-elections, particularly the APC win in Delta, should not be seen as a guarantee from the people."

Ojei raised concerns about government programs that often appear before elections.

He noted, "We see last-minute empowerment programs and attractive policies just before elections. In Delta, for example, the introduction of the 13th-month salary for civil servants came when political attention was on winning support. Government calls it a welfare policy, and workers should welcome it, but people can question its timing and sustainability."

Ojei added, "Our people are not naive. They see the difference between real development and election-time gestures. Where are the schools? Where are the hospitals? Where are the industries and real jobs for our youth? Why do political appointments like Special Assistants become the main job strategy for young people?"

He continued, "Delta has many resources, yet many communities suffer from poor infrastructure, unemployment, bad healthcare, and children living on the streets. Democracy shouldn't mean citizens wait for politicians to remember them during elections. It should mean government serves the people, not the other way around."

Ojei stated, "The APC may have won the Delta by-election, but a win should not be mistaken for a permanent approval of government performance. The public will judge every government by what they see in their communities, not by promises, empowerment schemes, or temporary gestures."

His argument adds another layer to the 2027 discussion. There’s a difference between a party's organization and voter satisfaction with the government.

A party can win an election for many reasons, including candidate appeal, party structure, divided opposition, turnout, and local political ties. Winning doesn’t guarantee that all voters support every part of the government.

The by-elections also highlighted the need for strong local political structures. The Gombe result, for instance, ties back to the local political scene in Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye. The same goes for the Kano outcome, which relies on the political setup in Dawakin Kudu. The two Bauchi elections show that even nearby constituencies can have different results. This is why the argument exists that results should be examined constituency by constituency, not as a simple national APC versus opposition issue.

This raises an important question as we approach 2027: will opposition parties run separately, form alliances, consolidate support for fewer candidates, or continue to operate independently?

No firm conclusion can be drawn about which approach will shape the 2027 results. But the September elections show that how the contest is structured matters.

Mohorret Bigun, INEC Public Affairs Officer in Gombe State, advised against using the September elections as a clear guide for 2027.

He said, "Every election is unique. The situation in 2027 may change. The number of political parties will not be the same."

He added, "The candidates will also differ. So the contest remains open, and it's up to the voters."

Despite this, the September results reveal several important facts for the 2027 conversation. A party that won four out of five elections will naturally feel more visible. Supporters may see these wins as proof of their strength, while opponents might view them as weaknesses needing attention.

Stanley further explained, "I see the by-elections as a sign, not a prediction. By-elections happen in specific areas and under situations that can differ greatly from nationwide elections. The real test will be if the APC can maintain this grassroots support, while opposition parties need to show they can unite and put forward credible alternatives. The by-election results have changed the political discussion, but the 2027 outcome will ultimately depend on voters across a much broader electoral landscape."

For the APC, the results show effective mobilization in four constituencies. For opposition parties, it highlights areas needing better organization and coordination. For INEC, it offers valuable experience before a much larger election. For voters and observers, it gives another view of Nigeria's changing political scene. But do the by-election results already indicate what will happen in the 2027 election?

The key question for the coming months is not just whether the APC can repeat its September success. It is whether the political conditions that led to these results will remain similar when voters face a much larger set of elections in 2027.

This will depend on candidate choices, party organization, alliances, opposition participation, voter mobilization, campaign issues, government performance, economic conditions, election administration, and individual voter decisions.