Opposition Parties in Nigeria Face Serious Challenges Ahead of Elections

Nigeria's two main opposition parties, ADC and NDC, are in trouble. This raises doubts about their ability to take on the ruling party, APC, in next year's elections.

Nigeria has 21 registered parties, but the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) are expected to challenge the APC. This is because of their presidential candidates: Atiku Abubakar from ADC and Peter Obi from NDC.

Mr Abubakar came second in the last presidential election while Mr Obi came third. Together, they had more votes than the eventual winner, President Bola Tinubu, in 2023. Even though they were in different parties during the last election, they are believed to still have a strong following.

For ADC and NDC to defeat the APC, they need to be strong. But they are facing serious problems, mostly due to how they managed their party primaries.

ADC’s Many Disputes

The ADC entered 2026 with a lot of hope but fell apart when important members like Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso left for the NDC. The party, led by veterans like Atiku Abubakar, David Mark, and Rauf Aregbesola, has been facing constant factional issues.

Claims over the party’s leadership have led to court cases. INEC temporarily removed Messrs Mark and Aregbesola from its records after an Appeal Court order in early 2026, but the Supreme Court later reinstated them. A Federal High Court judge ordered INEC to deregister the ADC and three other parties, saying they did not meet the registration requirements. The ADC plans to appeal this decision and hopes for a better outcome in higher courts. Still, they face numerous court cases about their registration, leadership, and conventions.

Things got worse for the ADC after their presidential primary. Although Atiku became the candidate, Mr Amaechi and another candidate rejected the result, claiming many people were denied the chance to vote. The ADC named Mr Amaechi as its vice presidential candidate to ease tensions with him.

Beyond the presidential primary, the ADC is also facing issues from its governorship primaries in states like Rivers, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Kano, Benue, and Adamawa. In Rivers, which is Mr Amaechi’s home state, different factions claim to have different candidates, and appeals are still pending in other states. Some unhappy candidates are threatening to go to court or leave the party. The disputes are so serious that three weeks after the primaries, the ADC still has not released its official candidate list.

But the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said they are working to resolve the issues before finalizing candidate lists. "We have time, and we will do the needful once this process is over," he said.

The unresolved issues are a big challenge for the ADC. Conflicting claims and pending appeals could lead to legal battles over nominations. Resources that could be used for campaigning are being spent on internal disputes. These problems make it hard for the ADC to present a united front against the APC.

NDC: Rapid Growth Creates New Challenges

The NDC was registered in February 2026 and quickly welcomed many high-profile members. Mr Obi became the presidential candidate without opposition, with Mr Kwankwaso as his running mate. Primaries were done by late May 2026, but there have been many complaints of irregularities across states. The ‘Obidient Movement’, which supports Mr Obi, has criticized the party over appointments and treatment of its key supporters like activist Aisha Yesufu.

The crisis between NDC leaders and the Obidient Movement worsened when the party’s founder, Seriake Dickson, publicly criticized the group. He said the party was doing Mr Obi a favor and should be appreciated.

Mr Dickson, a former Bayelsa governor, met with Mr Obi on June 12. After their meeting, he announced that they had "amicably resolved all the issues" and urged members to "stop the bickering and name-calling," focusing instead on 2027. Mr Dickson blamed the Electoral Act’s requirement for direct primaries for many irregularities while defending the party as more than just a platform for big names.

Core Challenges and Fresh Risks

One of the NDC’s biggest challenges is turning the popularity of the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements into solid structures across Nigeria’s 774 local government areas. This is complicated by merging different political cultures and disagreements over power-sharing, especially in Kano, where disputes over a proposed 60-40 formula have caused tension.

Another problem has popped up in Abia State. Documents seen by journalists show that the chair of the Primary Election Committee submitted a candidate list directly to INEC on May 30 without going through the national leadership. Critics say this could lead to disputes if there are conflicting nominations.

The NDC is also dealing with efforts to reconcile and demands for loyalty to prevent defections after the primaries. Although NDC leaders are confident and say the party is ready for the next electoral phase, these issues show that building a nationwide political organization quickly is not easy.

A sign that the NDC's problems from its primaries are not solved came from the party’s spokesperson, Osa Director. Last Tuesday, he said the party has not “released any official results of its primary elections in any state.” He urged Nigerians to “disregard any such list in circulation.”

When Automation Meets Political Chaos

As of Monday, neither the ADC nor the NDC has published their full candidate lists. They still have time before submitting these lists to INEC.

INEC’s timetable is strict. Access codes for the nomination portal will be available from June 27. The deadline for submitting presidential and National Assembly candidates is July 11 at midnight, with later deadlines for governorship and state assembly elections. Only those listed in INEC’s official registry, supported by party records and court orders, will get access credentials.

While both opposition parties are expected to meet INEC deadlines, they will likely do so without resolving the issues from their primaries. This could mean entering elections with divided parties.

Leadership and Access Risks

Past issues like those faced by factions within the ADC and claims of unauthorized submissions show how leadership disputes can complicate access to the INEC nomination portal. If rival factions claim legitimacy, any submission could face immediate legal challenges.

Parallel and Disputed Lists

State-level grievances and unresolved appeals in both parties create more risks. If different factions produce rival candidate lists or challenge primary outcomes, courts might need to decide on nominations. This could affect candidates even after their lists are submitted.

The Grassroots Challenge

Beyond accessing the portal, both parties need to build strong polling-unit structures nationwide. Weak agent deployment and gaps in organization could hurt their competitiveness, no matter if they successfully upload candidate lists.

This digitized process has removed old manual negotiations. Internal discipline and compliance are now essential. Both parties were absent from INEC’s approved candidate list for the upcoming June 20 bye-elections, showing the real consequences of unresolved internal problems.

INEC’s Hands-Off Approach

INEC says it does not get involved in party affairs. It acts based on official records, party constitutions, and valid court rulings. There are no extensions; deadlines are fixed. The commission has excluded parties from recent bye-elections due to unresolved leadership issues and will only process submissions from recognized officials, leaving later disputes to the courts. Monitoring key party activities is necessary for full compliance under the Electoral Act.

Resolution Prospects and Broader 2027 Implications

Despite the issues both parties face, there is still a chance to resolve them before INEC’s nomination deadline. The NDC has started reconciliation talks between Messrs Obi and Dickson, while the ADC has gained from recent leadership reinstatements due to court rulings. But both parties still need to resolve outstanding appeals, manage unhappy candidates, and build internal unity before finalizing candidate lists.

With the nomination portal set to open, both parties still have a small chance to meet the July 11 deadline for presidential and National Assembly candidates. But time is running out, and unresolved disputes could quickly turn into legal and administrative issues.

Beyond the immediate nomination process, these crises show broader problems facing Nigeria’s opposition. A divided political landscape could split anti-APC votes. The increasing role of courts in politics means that judges, not voters or party members, often decide the fate of candidates and elections.

Most importantly, both parties show signs of weakness, still relying heavily on a few powerful political figures like Atiku, Amaechi, Obi, and Kwankwaso. The bigger question is whether either party has built strong enough structures to last beyond the influence of its leaders.

Constitutional lawyer and political analyst Chima Nnaji warned that unresolved disputes could lead to legal issues for candidates. Courts often step in when parties fail to follow the Electoral Act or their own rules.

Similar disputes in Zamfara and Rivers have led to major electoral victories being overturned, showing how internal party crises can have serious consequences beyond the courtroom.

For both the ADC and NDC, the coming weeks will reveal if Nigeria’s opposition has the strength to compete for power in 2027 or if internal weaknesses will undermine their chances before campaigns even start.