Opposition Struggles Ahead of Elections

With the general elections just three months away, opposition politicians seem to be going around in circles. They have fancy names for this wasted effort: consultations, tours, deliberations, and meetings. As soon as one round ends, another begins, all motion, no progress.

It is quite ironic that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which should be in a tough spot, is actually forming a broad coalition and bringing in members from opposition parties to keep power.

The common belief in opposition circles is that the next election is a fight between APC and Nigerian voters. This is a lazy assumption that ignores how ruling parties in Nigeria and other places have been defeated. It also assumes that voters should automatically take the opposition's side without the opposition making any effort.

Tinubu as the Target

On the contrary, it is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s allies who are trying to turn political differences into electoral teamwork, even when they have the upper hand. In the end, there will be plenty of claims about how the APC won, without any real thought about why the opposition lost.

President Tinubu is the main target. He has always been that way, from claims of creating a one-party system to causing problems that unsettle the opposition.

He alone is blamed for the problems in all political parties except his own, and he alone should face the consequences for the blind ambition that threatens the opposition's chances.

It is also Tinubu’s fault that the powerful APC is the party trying to build a coalition, rather than the other way around.

Maybe Tinubu is also to blame for confusing the opposition parties about the petrol subsidy and taking away their ability to suggest clear alternatives to the ongoing economic issues. After the announcement this week of the first Ebola case in Nigeria in 12 years, some are already saying that Tinubu has used Ebola to distract from the upcoming 2027 elections.

Learning from the Past

What they conveniently forget is that, until now, the history of Nigeria's multiparty democracy has remained pretty consistent.

When the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) teamed up to form the Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) before independence, it was not due to shared beliefs. It was just a means to capture power.

By 1964, the NCNC, part of the NNA, split into a rival group, the United Grand Progressive Alliance (UPGA), to challenge the NPC. Former allies became opponents again in their quest for power. The events that followed set the stage for Nigeria’s first military intervention in politics.

The civil-democratic cycles in 1979 and 1999 also show shallow beliefs and a stronger focus on politics, leaning towards regional alliances with ethnic and religious mixes.

A Trend Across Africa

Nigeria’s coalition politics is not unique; it is actually a common trend across Africa. But Tinubu’s coalition is different. It is led by a ruling party that is bringing in other parties to form a power-sharing group.

Kenya’s National Rainbow Coalition, or NARC, united opposition forces and defectors from the ruling party ahead of the December 2002 election. Its main parts were the National Alliance Party of Kenya and the Liberal Democratic Party/Rainbow Coalition. Under Mwai Kibaki, it beat the Kenya African National Union (KANU), the party that had ruled Kenya since independence in 1963.

The key change was the coordination among the opposition. In Kenya’s 1992 and 1997 elections, opposition parties got over 60 percent of the vote but were divided. In 2002, the alliance turned scattered support into a winning force.

The negotiations for the 2027 elections are not new, but opposition politicians have chosen to ignore history. They have plenty of examples to learn from, yet they seem to lack the will to do so.

Reworking the Template

It is the same approach that the ruling APC updated in 2013, and by 2015, they managed to displace the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) goal of ruling Nigeria for 60 years. What is more puzzling is that many people in the current divided opposition groups were active in politics or helped the APC rise to power.

The fact that both the history and lessons from the past have become a tough formula for the opposition to copy is not just a problem for the political elite but a serious issue for citizens who want real choices on the ballot.

Staying Divided

An opposition whose key figures are filled with political energy but lack a solid plan turns the search for alternative leadership into a mere academic exercise.

For instance, what was the point of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, criticizing Diaspora remittances when his party asks for funds from abroad? Or the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, hiring lobbyists in the US at a high cost when the party’s local members can hardly afford a campaign tent?

It is easy to see why the opposition is on track to hand over power to a ruling party that is struggling to connect with an electorate that is deeply unhappy. They are scared of making the ultimate compromise that could mean putting aside personal ambitions for the greater good.

To make any progress, they need to overcome the barrier of personal ambition. Self-interest is the mountain the opposition must level before they can think of unseating President Tinubu in next year’s elections.

A divided front will never succeed. The longer they take to unite, the harder it will become. Perhaps their backup plan is to enter the elections, point out flaws in the process, make excuses, go to court, and hope for a favorable judgment.

The Same Old Story

It doesn’t help that the presidential candidates and running mates in the two main opposition parties, NDC and ADC, contradict themselves and have failed to offer clear alternatives on key national issues like security and the petrol subsidy.

Coalitions need binding agreements instead of just friendly declarations; they need shared resources rather than separate fundraising efforts; they need local coordination rather than competing claims of popularity; and they need programs that show why and how replacing the government would improve the country.

For now, Nigerians are watching a familiar scene: the ruling party campaigning for another term while its challengers seem to be focused on planning for the next coalition meeting.

If this were a book, the perfect title would be 2027: Defeat Made Easy.