The TinuBOOM is Here: Signs of Progress Under Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu started his administration with promises of reform. These changes were needed, but they have put a lot of pressure on Nigerians. Families are now making tougher choices about food, transport, rent, school fees, and energy costs. Traders and small businesses are also adjusting their profits due to changes in exchange rates, credit costs, and increasing expenses. Any discussion about the early results of this administration must start with this reality, because reforms lose public trust when government talks without considering the people's experiences.

The key question is whether the tough decisions made since May 2023 have started to fix the problems that weakened Nigeria's economy. We need to know if these fixes are reaching citizens more directly. On this matter, the evidence shows a significant but ongoing story. The Tinubu administration has not solved every issue in three years, but there are measurable early results in areas like reserves, revenue, oil production, capital inflows, growth, education funding, and Nigeria's reputation with investors and development partners.

When President Tinubu took office, Nigeria's public finances were in bad shape. The fuel subsidy was draining public funds that could have been used for basic services. The Central Bank had a big backlog in foreign exchange, and multiple exchange rates created confusion. Oil production was not meeting national needs, and public revenue was too low to support Nigeria's development. These deep-rooted issues limited the government's ability to fund services, protect the currency, and assist businesses and households. Ignoring them would have provided short-term comfort but would have caused deeper problems in the long run.

One clear early result is seen in Nigeria's external position. The Central Bank cleared about $7 billion in foreign exchange obligations, which helped rebuild trust in a system that many airlines, manufacturers, and investors had doubts about. Since then, Nigeria's net foreign-exchange reserves have increased from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025. By mid-February 2026, gross reserves reached $50.45 billion. The balance of payments also improved, moving from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022 to a $6.83 billion surplus in 2024. These are not just numbers. They show a country working hard to meet its external obligations, maintain currency stability, and regain trust in the foreign-exchange market.

This improvement is also reflected in how investors are acting. Capital inflows grew by nearly 90 per cent in 2025, from $12.32 billion to $23.22 billion, with foreign portfolio investment making up much of that rise. This should not be mistaken for a full investment boom, but it shows that investors are coming back to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market best shows this renewed confidence. In 2023, the All-Share Index was around 53,000, with market capitalisation at about ₦30 trillion. By 2026, the index climbed to 250,000, with market capitalisation soaring to ₦160 trillion, a near fivefold increase. Such growth does not happen in a market where investors see only uncertainty. It points to a major reassessment of Nigerian assets and a growing belief that reforms are positively impacting the economy.

Inflation is a key concern because Nigerians feel the effects of policy in their daily expenses. When President Tinubu took office, inflation was already at 22.41 per cent in May 2023. After implementing tough but necessary reforms on subsidies and exchange rates, inflation rose to 34.80 per cent in December 2024. The latest figure of 15.69 per cent in April 2026 shows some easing, but we should be cautious because the National Bureau of Statistics updated the Consumer Price Index. The important point is that inflation has decreased from the severe pressure of the adjustment period, but food prices and household costs need to fall further before many Nigerians can feel the benefits.

The growth and revenue figures indicate an economy gaining strength outside of oil. In the first quarter of 2023, before President Tinubu took office, the NBS reported real GDP growth at 2.31 per cent, slowed by a cash crunch. By the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth had risen to 3.89 per cent and is expected to exceed 4 per cent within a year according to international financial institutions. Manufacturing grew by 3.29 per cent, and the non-oil sector made up 96.08 per cent of real GDP. Between January and August 2025, total government collections rose to ₦20.59 trillion, up from ₦14.6 trillion in the same period of 2024, with non-oil sources contributing ₦15.69 trillion, about three out of every four naira collected. This shows the economy is expanding, with much of the activity coming from sectors where most Nigerians work and do business. The government now has more resources to fund roads, schools, healthcare, security, and social support. The more Nigeria can fund public services from a wider revenue base, the less it has to operate from a position of financial stress.

Oil production is central to Nigeria’s recovery because it affects foreign exchange and revenue. In April 2023, before President Tinubu took office, Nigeria's average crude oil output was about 1.25 million barrels per day. By April 2026, it had risen to 1.663 million barrels per day. That is an increase of approximately 32.8 per cent in total crude oil and condensate output since April 2023. For an economy that relies heavily on oil for foreign exchange and public revenue, this recovery gives Nigeria more ability to defend the naira, fund the budget, meet external obligations, and rebuild investor confidence in the oil sector.

NELFUND is a clear way the reform agenda is reaching families. For many households, the hardest part of higher education is managing fees and living costs. By creating a public financing scheme for students, the administration is reducing one of the barriers that keep capable young Nigerians from school or cause them to drop out. As of 9 March, the fund has distributed ₦206.29 billion to 1,164,222 beneficiaries, with ₦128.84 billion paid to institutions for fees and ₦77.45 billion paid to students for living costs. These figures show a policy that meets real needs across the country: education financing is providing practical support for families. We are seeing ongoing stability and growth in the education sector.

The new minimum wage is also part of this assessment, though wage policy alone cannot tackle inflation. President Tinubu signed the new national minimum wage into law in July 2024, raising it from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 and changing the review period from five years to three years. The increase addressed a real issue: wages had fallen too far behind prices. Wage policy alone cannot defeat inflation, but it helps protect the lowest-paid workers during a tough adjustment period. The bigger goal remains an economy where incomes rise as production, productivity, and business activity increase, with the government adjusting the wage floor as needed.

Nigeria's credibility in reforms is also changing how the country is seen abroad. This has practical value in foreign affairs. It impacts how investors view the country, how lenders assess risk, how development partners engage, and how much confidence Nigeria has in economic talks. Multilateral organizations like the IMF and the World Bank have linked Nigeria's current stronger economic stability to reforms. Also important, in May 2026, S&P upgraded Nigeria's long-term sovereign rating, citing a stronger economic profile, higher oil production, domestic refining capacity, and exchange-rate changes. These signs show that Nigeria is starting to regain trust in places where money and economic influence are discussed.

For those of us working in foreign affairs, these domestic signs relate directly to Nigeria's status abroad. A country negotiates better when businesses trust its currency market, airlines and investors believe that obligations will be met, partners see better fiscal management, and citizens abroad receive better service from the Nigerian state. Stronger reserves, a balance-of-payments surplus, renewed capital inflows, better revenue performance, recovering oil output, and education financing shape how Nigeria is viewed by investors, development partners, diaspora communities, and other governments.

The strongest criticism of the administration may be that Nigerians still feel the pressure of reform before experiencing relief. That criticism is valid. But, three years after President Tinubu took office, the honest conclusion is that the early results are real and significant. Nigeria has rebuilt its foreign-exchange reserves from a very weak position. It has moved from balance-of-payments deficits to a surplus. Investment is returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market has hit record levels. Public revenue has improved. Growth has continued under tough conditions. Oil output has recovered from the lows before this administration. NELFUND has opened a new path for education financing. The minimum wage has increased. These are serious developments.

Now, the job is to protect these gains, reduce inflation further, improve food supply, lower business costs, enhance infrastructure and energy reforms, strengthen security, and demand better spending from every level of government. The early results are starting to show. The next step is to make them more visible in markets, classrooms, farms, workplaces, airports, hospitals, and homes.

Like Rome, Nigeria will not be built in a day. Development needs patience, careful decisions, and steady execution. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is laying that foundation. This is the TinuBOOM effect: the early signs of a country starting to regain its balance, rebuild trust, and set the stage for broader relief.