Tinubu's Impact: What Will He Leave Behind?

If Nigeria had reliable national opinion polls, we would know where President Bola Tinubu and the other candidates stand, especially with the presidential election just four months and nineteen days away.

But we don't have that.

So we look at something else that tells a story: the record. Without serious polling, it appears Tinubu is more focused on mission than ambition. This is an important difference.

His strong economic policies might make sense to those who understand the big economic picture, but they can be hard for those feeling the immediate pain. The struggle of reform often hides quick benefits, making it tough for people to see the positive changes, especially when political opponents throw around confusing arguments.

As Reuters recently noted, "few Nigerian presidents have moved as quickly on economic policy as Tinubu."

But history reminds us that big changes take time. In March 2012, I visited Singapore for business. There, I learned from the people what I had read in the book "From Third World to First" by Singapore’s former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.

Singapore’s success shows how today's economic discipline can lead to tomorrow's growth. Singapore was not Nigeria. It had a small population, a key port, a strong state, and consistent economic policies. Lee Kuan Yew’s government faced poverty and unemployment but pushed for industrialization, attracted foreign investment, built infrastructure, and focused on education. By the early 1970s, unemployment was mostly solved, allowing the country to move towards industries needing higher skills and technology.

Tinubu's revolution is subtle. Amid the political noise, what started as a policy memo is now attracting global attention.

International companies and governments are watching, not just because of slogans but due to Nigeria’s growing desire to use technology to boost productivity and improve the quality of its goods.

Here lies the twist. The International Trade Administration, part of the US Department of Commerce, is looking at Nigeria and urging American firms to check out the tech opportunities here. Americans are interested in Nigeria, while some of Nigeria’s opposition politicians want citizens to ignore this.

Truth be told, Tinubu's quiet tech revolution is easy to overlook. But it is not going unnoticed. Washington sees a market worth exploring. They are keeping an eye on Nigeria and aligning their interests.

In 2024, the US Department of Commerce and Nigeria’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment signed a Commercial and Investment Partnership focusing on agriculture, the digital economy, and infrastructure. At the same time, Washington issued a joint statement with Nigeria’s Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy on harnessing artificial intelligence. Later that year, Lagos hosted the second-ever US Global Inclusivity on Artificial Intelligence: Africa conference, bringing together ten US agencies and 400 pan-African stakeholders.

This is not just for show. The United States already lists Nigeria among its top 55 trade partners, with two-way trade reaching $11.2 billion in 2023. In a country where oil now makes up only 5.7 percent of GDP, the digital economy accounts for nearly 20 percent of output in a single quarter, almost four times what oil contributes. When a superpower holds AI conferences in Lagos and signs statements on digital governance, it is not mere tourism. It is part of a strategy.

Europe is also following this path. The European Union has announced a €290 million investment package for Nigeria under its Global Gateway strategy. The largest share, €131 million, is for expanding fibre-optic networks to connect millions without stable internet. An additional €45 million EU Digital Economy Package focuses on safe connectivity, digital public infrastructure, e-governance, digital entrepreneurship, and advanced skills, linking to Nigeria’s 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme.

The message is clear: Europe sees Nigeria as a future digital and manufacturing hub for West Africa, not just an energy supplier. Over a quarter of Nigeria’s trade is with the EU, and more than 200 European companies operate here. Brussels believes digital connections will deepen these ties.

The United Kingdom is also increasing cooperation with a £15 million growth program focused on investment and the digital economy. Bilateral trade with Nigeria is nearing £7.2 billion. Canada’s Africa strategy emphasizes cooperation, youth empowerment, and digital skills, with high-level trade missions and new ways to finance technology and infrastructure. This shows alignment across countries: many capitals, one conclusion.

None of this changes the daily struggles Nigerians face, which other nations also encounter.

To say Nigeria’s story is only about pain misses the larger picture: a nation that, despite challenges, is becoming a key digital market on the continent.

Nigeria leads Africa’s ICT sector, making up 82 percent of the continent’s ICT value and 29 percent of its internet usage. The country has more than 210 million mobile subscribers. Broadband coverage is over 40 percent. 5G licenses have been issued and launched in major cities. The fintech sector handles hundreds of billions of dollars in transactions yearly. This is not a potential market; it is an active digital economy with real users and real stakes.

The cost of reforms is high. They come with political risks, but they are also necessary. A nation of over 220 million cannot build a modern economy with outdated infrastructure and bureaucratic systems. Digital change may not solve every problem, but it can improve tax collection, service delivery, financial inclusion, education, health, and even anti-corruption when systems are designed to be clear and accountable.

Yet, the way this story is told can be misleading. Too often, "digital economy" is used to mean just apps and startups, as if the goal is to create a few wealthy founders while everyone else waits. That is not the ambition here. The true aim is to change how work is done, how value is created, and how ordinary Nigerians can connect to global markets without leaving their local areas.

The 3MTT program, the broadband expansion, the data protection measures, and the new AI strategy are not just for show. They aim to create a different kind of growth that does not rely only on oil prices or global commodity trends. This growth should be able to absorb a young population instead of pushing them out as mere statistics.

Yes, the cost of reforms is a persistent issue. But the cost of stagnation is even greater. The world is not waiting for a perfect Nigeria. It is engaging with the real Nigeria: messy, complicated, and full of life. The question is whether Nigerians, especially those who can influence policy and investment, will match this external interest with their own commitment.

Being optimistic is not ignoring reality. It is a choice. It is a choice to see the quiet tech revolution for what it is: not a distraction from real development, but one of the few genuine paths to it. The world has made its decision. The memo has turned into a movement. Now, it is up to Nigeria to seize the opportunity Tinubu has created.