Will Goodluck Jonathan Run for President Again in 2027?

The choice of former President Goodluck Jonathan as the presidential candidate of the Taminu Turaki faction of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has become a hot topic in Nigeria's 2027 political discussions.

"The party had already given our presidential aspirant the waiver. Like I said in the beginning, he was deputy governor, became governor, became vice president, became president, so we didn’t see anything that needed screening; and therefore, the party had given him a waiver. In other words, he had been declared and cleared as the candidate of the PDP for the presidential election, and that is President Jonathan," Babangida Aliyu, chairman of the Screening Committee and former governor of Niger State, told journalists on May 19.

Mr. Jonathan’s candidacy was later ratified on Saturday, May 30, at an event where a member of the House of Representatives, Fred Agbedi, accepted the flag on his behalf.

While some Nigerians are questioning this development mainly on legal grounds, others have warned Mr. Jonathan. They say that running under a divided PDP could harm his respected status built since he left office in 2015.

Mr. Jonathan has not openly accepted or declined the nomination. His silence has increased speculation among political watchers. Some supporters think he is weighing the political situation before deciding, while others believe he might not want to give up the elder statesman image he has built.

Mr. Jonathan served as Nigeria’s vice president from 2007 to 2010 before taking over from President Umaru Yar’Adua, who died in office. He later won the presidential election in 2011 under the PDP.

Jonathan’s Journey and Downfall in 2015

Jonathan’s presidency is one of the most discussed in Nigeria’s democratic history. His administration saw major economic growth, banking reforms, growth in the telecommunications industry, and improvements in agricultural financing. Under his leadership, Nigeria rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014 and briefly became Africa’s largest economy.

But his administration also faced serious issues, including corruption claims, insecurity, and weak political unity. The rise of the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east hurt public trust in his government, and the 2014 abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls drew harsh criticism both locally and globally.

Politically, Mr. Jonathan entered the 2015 election weakened by divisions in his party, the PDP. Many governors and key party leaders left for the All Progressives Congress (APC), set up to challenge the PDP’s long-standing power.

Mr. Jonathan lost the election to the APC candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari. This was Nigeria’s first democratic handover from an incumbent president to an opposition candidate.

His loss was historic, not just because of the result, but because he accepted defeat before the final results were announced. This was praised for helping to stabilize Nigeria’s democracy.

From President to African Statesman

Since leaving office in 2015, Mr. Jonathan has mostly stayed out of frontline politics, avoiding PDP events and meetings. He has rebranded himself as a statesman and international democracy advocate.

Through the Goodluck Jonathan Foundation and his work with various regional and global groups, he has become one of Africa’s leading election observers and mediators.

He has led or taken part in election observation and peace missions in countries like The Gambia, Mali, Liberia, Zambia, and South Africa. He has also acted as a mediator for ECOWAS and the African Union in political conflicts across the continent.

Many analysts believe his international standing improved greatly after his time in office, especially because of his peaceful concession in 2015, which contrasts with the political tensions often seen in elections in many African nations.

Mr. Jonathan has consistently pushed for electoral reforms, peaceful transitions, and democratic stability across Africa. His actions in regional conflicts and democratic negotiations have earned him respect among African leaders and international bodies.

Why Some Politicians Want Jonathan Back

The push for Mr. Jonathan’s return is based on several political factors.

First, many politicians see him as a unifying figure who can draw support from different regions and religions. Unlike many active politicians, the former president has kept a relatively moderate public image since leaving office.

Second, supporters believe that public dissatisfaction with economic troubles, insecurity, and political instability under recent governments has led some Nigerians to view his time in power more positively.

Third, within the PDP, some believe only a well-known figure like Mr. Jonathan can help revive the party’s fortunes before the 2027 election.

Fourth, if he runs and wins, Mr. Jonathan would only serve one term. This would allow power to shift back to northern Nigeria in 2031, following an unwritten rule for power rotation among Nigeria’s political elites every eight years.

However, Mr. Jonathan’s nomination seems to be a risky political move by the PDP faction. Mr. Turaki served as Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs during Jonathan's presidency. The two reportedly had several private discussions recently, focusing on the 2027 election and the future of the PDP.

The PDP has faced internal issues since the 2023 elections, leading to deep divisions as rival groups fight for control of the party’s direction.

Aside from the Turaki faction, the other group is aligned with Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Officially led by Abdulrahman Mohammed, it is currently recognized by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The Turaki faction’s choice of Mr. Jonathan highlights the growing divisions within the PDP. Since losing power in 2015, the opposition party has struggled with leadership disputes, defections, and disagreements over zoning.

By presenting Mr. Jonathan as a consensus candidate, the faction may be trying to position itself as the legitimate political center amid the PDP crisis.

But not all responses have been positive. Some Nigerians argue that this move shows the major political parties' failure to build younger leaders and fresh options. Others are skeptical of another Jonathan candidacy, saying Nigeria needs a new generation of leadership, not a return to former officeholders.

The Makinde Factor and Mixed Signals from the Opposition

The adoption of Jonathan has become more complicated by other developments within the opposition.

Recently, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde declared his intention to run for president under a proposed alliance between the APM and the same faction of the PDP that adopted Mr. Jonathan. But with Mr. Makinde now emerging as the APM candidate, the path may be clearer for Jonathan.

Still, the faction supported by Nyesom Wike remains a challenge. The INEC-recognized faction has picked Sandy Onor, a former senator, as its candidate.

So, as it stands, given INEC’s recognition of the rival PDP faction, the former president’s nomination might not lead anywhere.

The Legal Question Around Jonathan’s Eligibility

Another major legal question about Mr. Jonathan’s potential candidacy is whether he can run for president again.

This uncertainty comes from the Fourth Alteration to the 1999 Constitution, signed into law in 2018. Section 137(3) states that a person who has served two terms as president cannot run again.

Critics of Mr. Jonathan’s ambition argue that since he was sworn in twice, first to finish Mr. Yar’Adua’s term in 2010 and then after winning the 2011 election, running again would mean a third term.

Supporters, on the other hand, argue that the constitutional change cannot apply to him retroactively. The amendment took effect three years after he left office.

This issue went to court in 2022 when a Federal High Court in Yenagoa ruled that Mr. Jonathan was eligible to run. The judge, Isa Dashen, stated that the constitutional change could not be applied retroactively.

Last Tuesday, the Federal High Court in Abuja again affirmed that decision. Judge Peter Lifu dismissed a case seeking to block Mr. Jonathan from running. He stated that earlier court rulings had already settled the matter.

Despite this ruling, legal questions remain as the case has moved to the Appeal Court.

Solu Bakare, a senior constitutional lawyer, agrees with the lower court’s decision. He told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr. Jonathan has not used up his allowable time in office according to the law.

"This Jonathan case, was it a president for two terms? I’ll argue that it wasn’t in the sense that the supposed first term, he wasn’t elected as president, but he was a running mate to the then-president.

"He didn’t contest at that time for the presidency; he only got there as vice president or running mate to the then president. Because of that, I’ll say he still has that chance to go for another term. He initially didn’t contest for the election; he only completed the term of the former president," the lawyer explained.

Mr. Bakare also agreed that only the court can ultimately interpret the Constitution and issue binding decisions on eligibility.

"His victory could be challenged because there are so many grey areas until the court decides it. For example, in the days of Shagari-Awolowo interpretation of the two-thirds of 19 states, until the Supreme Court came out to say this is the best interpretation and whatever the court says is final, especially the Supreme Court."

Zoning Politics and Jonathan’s Possible Advantage

If the court rules in favor of Mr. Jonathan again, the discussion will shift to whether the zoning arrangement will favor him. Mr. Jonathan comes from Bayelsa in southern Nigeria.

Since President Bola Tinubu, also from the south, will be running for a second term, many politicians, even within the PDP, believe the presidency should stay in the south until 2031, following the informal power rotation rule in Nigeria.

Although the Nigerian constitution does not recognize zoning, this arrangement has been a significant political tradition since democracy returned in 1999. It was designed to balance power between the North and the South and reduce ethnic tensions in Nigeria.

Within the PDP, zoning became more controversial after the party fielded former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, as its candidate in the 2023 election. This happened despite calls for the ticket to go to the South after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in power.

This decision caused internal rebellion in the party and added to the crisis that weakened the PDP before the election. Some governors and influential leaders openly opposed the party’s presidential ticket, arguing that the PDP went against its own principles of equity and rotation.

In this context, some PDP members now see Mr. Jonathan as a possibly acceptable southern candidate who could gather wider support across the nation.

Jonathan’s Electoral Strength

Mr. Jonathan’s actual electoral strength, more than ten years after leaving office, is also debated.

While his public image has improved since 2015, popularity alone may not guarantee electoral success in Nigeria's competitive political scene.

One major concern is whether Mr. Jonathan has the grassroots political networks needed for a successful national campaign.

Since leaving office, he has mostly distanced himself from active politics and has not built the type of visible political organization typical of leading presidential candidates. He has repeatedly avoided PDP meetings and events.

Unlike in 2011 and 2015 when he had control over the federal government and the PDP's national structure, Mr. Jonathan currently lacks a solid political base within the divided opposition.

Political observers also wonder if he can gain the same level of support in northern Nigeria, where dissatisfaction with his administration’s handling of security played a big role in his 2015 defeat.

Though some northern politicians might back him for strategic reasons linked to zoning and alliances, it is uncertain if average voters in that region would support another Jonathan candidacy after the divisive politics of his past administration.

There are also concerns about generational politics. Nigeria's voter base has changed significantly since 2015, with younger voters becoming more influential.

The 2023 election showed the power of youth-driven political movements, especially on social media, where candidates face intense scrutiny and swift political mobilization.

Given these trends, Mr. Jonathan may find it hard to connect with younger voters who want political reforms, economic opportunities, and a break from Nigeria's traditional political system.

Another challenge is the financial and organizational strength of the ruling APC. Presidential elections in Nigeria need significant resources, nationwide mobilization, and broad political alliances across the six geopolitical zones.

Some analysts suggest that even if Mr. Jonathan gains support from parts of the PDP, building a strong coalition to challenge the APC’s national structure would be a major obstacle.

There is also the issue of public perception. While some Nigerians now remember Mr. Jonathan’s time in office more positively due to current economic conditions, others still associate his government with corruption claims, rising insecurity, and weak leadership.

That nostalgia may not be enough to win over voters looking for solutions to Nigeria's worsening economic and security problems.

Could Jonathan’s Candidacy Split the Southern Vote?

Another worry about Mr. Jonathan’s nomination is how it might affect voting patterns, especially in southern Nigeria.

If the former president accepts the nomination, he would enter a crowded political field of southern candidates.

Other southern presidential candidates include President Tinubu (APC), Peter Obi (NDC), Adewole Adebayo (SDP), Donald Duke (PRP), Dan Nwanyanwu (ZLP), Esther Okereke (NRM), Omoyele Sowore (AAC), Chibuzor Okereke (LP), and Mr. Makinde (APM).

This is assuming that Sandy Onor, the candidate of the Wike-led faction of the PDP, doesn't join the race.

Political analysts caution that multiple southern candidates could split opposition votes across the South-west, South-east, and South-south. This could make it harder for any one candidate to emerge as the main challenger to the ruling party.

Such a situation could indirectly help a northern candidate become the main opposition contender. Former Vice President Atiku is one of the northern politicians whose plans are still under scrutiny amid reports of possible opposition alliances.

The concern is not that Mr. Jonathan cannot attract votes, but that his entrance could complicate opposition strategies at a time when many are calling for unity instead of more candidates.

Implications of a Jonathan Candidacy

If Mr. Jonathan agrees to the PDP faction's nomination and runs in the 2027 election, the effects could be significant for both the PDP and Nigeria’s political landscape.

For the PDP, his candidacy could bring some factions together and restore national visibility to the party. His name and experience could help rebuild confidence among supporters frustrated by years of internal problems.

However, a Jonathan candidacy might also increase divisions within the opposition. Other candidates and factions may reject the nomination process, especially if they feel it lacks broad party support.

It is believed that Mr. Jonathan’s candidacy could affect the political future of key opposition figures, particularly Atiku.

Some political analysts think the APC may not see a Jonathan candidacy as a big threat compared to younger or more dynamic opposition figures.

They argue that some strategists in the ruling party might prefer facing a familiar political figure whose past administration is still subject to criticism over security and governance issues.

At the same time, a Jonathan candidacy could revive political awareness in the Niger Delta, where many supporters still view his 2015 loss as a significant setback for the region.

His return to active politics may reignite discussions about minority representation, regional inclusion, and power distribution within Nigeria’s political system.

Critics might also question whether bringing back former leaders signifies political recycling rather than true democratic renewal.

Public Opinions

The President of the Campaign for Democracy (CD), Ifeanyi Odili, told PREMIUM TIMES that the former president is entering the race at a challenging time politically, given the current dynamics within his party and the national political scene.

"He wants to contest at a time that is not favorable for him. Even while he was in power, he was defeated. Is it now that he’s no longer in power that he wants to win the election?

"I believe he’s being used by some people and unfortunately, at his age, he didn’t realise that," he said.

The Archbishop Metropolitan and Primate of the Church of Nigeria, Henry Ndukuba, urged Mr. Jonathan not to run for president in 2027, warning that returning to partisan politics could harm the respected image and global recognition he currently enjoys.