Should Jonathan Consider Running Again?

Former president Goodluck Jonathan

We must now ask: what kind of ambition will make Goodluck Jonathan come back to politics and face someone like Senator Seriake Dickson, the leader of Obi’s party, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC)?

If Goodluck Jonathan were my brother, I would find a quiet spot to chat with him honestly.

Don’t Run
“My dear brother, God has been very kind to you. In a country of 200 million people, He chose you for great roles. You were Deputy Governor, Governor, Vice President, and then President for six years! You had your flaws, but when you conceded defeat in 2015, the nation respected you. We were proud of you. The world saw you as a global statesman. Now, some political players are trying to lure you back into the race for the 2027 presidential elections. They even paid for your nomination forms and called you a consensus candidate.
“After spending years as a respected ECOWAS statesman, leading election missions and mediating crises in Africa, it would be below your dignity to return to the harsh and divisive world of Nigerian presidential campaigns. Your reputation as a peaceful elder statesman could be tarnished by personal attacks. Please, don’t reduce your status. Don’t let history remember you as someone easily swayed.”

It is up to him to take or ignore my advice. But I would feel good knowing I shared my thoughts on why he should avoid those pushing him to run.

Professor Jerry Gana, a key figure in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has made a strong case for Jonathan to return to active politics. One reason is that choosing Jonathan would ensure the presidency rotates back to the North by 2031, preventing a new candidate from holding the position for eight years straight.

Strategists
Gana and other PDP strategists believe there is growing public nostalgia for the economic conditions during Jonathan's time (2010, 2015). With Nigeria facing high food prices and economic challenges, the PDP wants to present Jonathan’s past tenure as a time of prosperity. The ‘Bring Back Jonathan’ movement is an effort to give voters a familiar choice amid current uncertainties.

Similarly, younger PDP supporters, like Honourable Benedict Etanabene, have urged Jonathan to consider running for the 2027 presidency. Etanabene mentioned that developed democracies often bring back experienced leaders in tough times. He cited Donald Trump in the US and John Mahama in Ghana as examples. “In the US, Trump left and returned. They voted for him. The Ghanaian president did the same. When we have issues, we should look for capable people; we shouldn’t push them away,” he said.

But with Nigerian politics being very transactional, Jonathan’s return could lead to a backlash from those who feel threatened by his candidacy. What will he say if Peter Obi’s supporters accuse him of trying to take votes away from Obi to help Tinubu?

Many analysts view Jonathan’s time as a mix of achievements and failures. He showed commitment to democracy but struggled with issues like corruption and economic mismanagement. He left office gracefully by conceding defeat, earning him respect as an international statesman.

Ill-Advised
We need to ask: what ambition would drive Goodluck Jonathan back into politics against someone like Senator Seriake Dickson, who is now leading Obi’s party, the NDC?
Or what if APC members accuse him of being paid to take votes from Tinubu in the South-South? This is not to say Jonathan has strong influence there, but he might face serious criticism if he runs.

If Jonathan contests and loses, he could harm his political future.

Political strategists tend to support whichever party is in power. If Jonathan becomes president, it would spark intense competition for succession among Northern presidential hopefuls right from the start, which could hinder governance.

Certainly, the PDP and any groups aiming to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would welcome Jonathan’s recognition across Nigeria. But how much does that truly help?

Political Math
When the APC was in opposition, they managed to unseat the PDP by dividing the party and uniting anti-PDP forces. The best way to defeat an incumbent in Nigeria is through a united opposition.

Sadly, the current opposition is divided. Imagine if Jonathan, Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, Duke, Adebayo, and Sowore were all in the same party!

The NDC lacks the strong national structures of the APC. Atiku has solid national support and funding but is also dealing with a fractured opposition. He is trying to build new support while competing with Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu for votes in the North. Atiku is a strong candidate because of his experience.

Tinubu has a well-established political network, backed by 31 APC governors. His campaign will depend on how the public views issues like the economy, security, and inflation in the coming months. If people become frustrated with the economy and security worsens, it could shift support away from the traditional structures.

Everyone acknowledges that Tinubu is a strong contender, both as a former governor and as the current president. Yet, they also note that no one is unbeatable.

In 2023, Tinubu won with about 36.6 percent of the vote because the opposition was divided. If Atiku, Obi, and other candidates remain on separate tickets, they might split the votes of those looking for change.

President Jonathan is best advised to stay out of the race!