2027: Will Goodluck Jonathan Run Again?

The choice of Goodluck Jonathan as the presidential candidate by the Taminu Turaki faction of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has become a hot topic in Nigeria’s political talks for 2027.

“The party had already given our presidential aspirant the waiver. Like I said in the beginning, he was deputy governor, became governor, became vice president, became president, so we didn’t see anything that needed screening; and therefore, the party had given him a waiver. In other words, he had been declared and cleared as the candidate of the PDP for the presidential election, and that is President Jonathan.” Babangida Aliyu, chairman of the Screening Committee and former governor of Niger State, told journalists on 19 May.

Mr Jonathan’s candidacy was later confirmed on Saturday, 30 May, during a ceremony where a member of the House of Representatives, Fred Agbedi, received the party flag on his behalf.

While some Nigerians have raised concerns about this decision, mainly on constitutional grounds, others have warned Mr Jonathan that running under a divided PDP could harm the respected image he has built since leaving office in 2015. Mr Jonathan has not publicly accepted or rejected the nomination. His silence has only fueled speculation in political circles. Supporters think he is weighing his options, while some believe he might not want to lose the elder statesman image he has.

Mr Jonathan was Nigeria’s vice president from 2007 to 2010 before taking over from President Umaru Yar’Adua after his death. He won the presidential election in 2011 under the PDP.

Jonathan’s Presidency: Rise and Fall

Jonathan’s time as president is one of the most talked-about periods in Nigeria’s democratic history. His government saw significant economic growth, banking reforms, growth in the telecommunications sector, and better agricultural financing. Under his leadership, Nigeria rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014, becoming Africa’s largest economy at that time.

But his administration faced serious issues like corruption claims, insecurity, and poor political coordination. The Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east damaged public trust in his government. The kidnapping of the Chibok schoolgirls in 2014 brought both local and global criticism.

Politically, Mr Jonathan entered the 2015 election weakened by divisions in his party, the PDP. Several governors and key party members switched to the All Progressives Congress (APC), which formed from a merger of three parties to challenge the PDP’s rule.

Mr Jonathan lost the election to the APC’s candidate, former military leader Muhammadu Buhari, marking Nigeria’s first democratic transfer of power from an incumbent president to an opposition candidate. His defeat was historic not just for the result but also because he accepted his loss before the final results were announced, a move praised for helping to stabilize Nigeria’s democracy.

From President to Statesman

Since leaving office in 2015, Mr Jonathan has mostly stayed away from active politics, avoiding PDP events and rebranding himself as a statesman and advocate for democracy. Through the Goodluck Jonathan Foundation and his work with global organizations, he has become a well-known election observer and mediator in Africa.

He has led or joined election observation and peace missions in countries like The Gambia, Mali, Liberia, Zambia, and South Africa. He has also acted as a mediator for ECOWAS and the African Union in political disputes.

Analysts say his international reputation improved after he left office, especially because of his peaceful concession of defeat in 2015, which contrasts with the political tensions often seen during elections in other African nations.

Mr Jonathan has pushed for electoral reforms, peaceful transitions, and democratic stability across Africa. His involvement in regional conflicts and democratic negotiations has earned him respect among African leaders and international bodies.

Why Some Politicians Want Jonathan Back

The push for Mr Jonathan’s return to power comes from various political interests. Some see him as a unifying figure who can gain support from different regions and religious groups. Unlike many current politicians, the former president has kept a moderate public image since he left office.

Supporters believe that public frustration over economic difficulties, insecurity, and political instability under various administrations has created a sense of nostalgia for Mr Jonathan’s time, making some Nigerians view his presidency more positively.

Within the PDP, some members think that only a name like Mr Jonathan can revive the party’s fortunes as it heads into the 2027 elections. If he runs and wins, Mr Jonathan would only serve one term, as he has already served one term before. This would ensure that power returns to northern Nigeria in 2031, following the unwritten rule among Nigeria’s political elite to rotate power every eight years.

But adopting Mr Jonathan seems to be a risky political move by the PDP faction. Mr Turaki was a Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs during Jonathan’s government. Both men have reportedly held several private talks recently, focusing on the 2027 election and the PDP's future.

The PDP has been facing internal conflicts since the 2023 elections, leading to serious divisions as different factions fight for control of the party.

Apart from the Turaki-led faction, another group is aligned with the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike. This faction, led by Abdulrahman Mohammed, currently has the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s recognition.

The Turaki-led faction’s choice of Mr Jonathan also highlights the growing divisions within the PDP. Since losing power in 2015, the opposition party has struggled with disputes over leadership, defections, and disagreements about zoning.

By presenting Mr Jonathan as a candidate everyone can agree on, the faction might be trying to establish itself as the true political center amid the PDP crisis.

But not everyone is happy about this move. Some Nigerians feel it shows that major political parties cannot develop younger leaders and fresh options. Others doubt Mr Jonathan’s candidacy, arguing that Nigeria needs new political leaders rather than a return to old ones.

The Makinde Factor and the Opposition’s Confusion

The situation around Mr Jonathan’s nomination has become more complex due to other developments in the opposition. Recently, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde announced his intent to run for president under a proposed alliance between the APM and the same PDP faction that adopted Mr Jonathan. However, the path may now be clear for the former president following Mr Makinde’s recent selection as the APM’s candidate.

Still, there is the Wike-supported faction to deal with. The INEC-recognised group has chosen Sandy Onor, a former senator, as its candidate.

So, as things stand, given INEC’s recognition of the rival PDP faction, Mr Jonathan’s nomination might not make much difference.

The Constitutional Issue Around Jonathan’s Eligibility

Another big legal question about Mr Jonathan’s possible candidacy is whether he can run for president again. The uncertainty comes from the Fourth Alteration to the 1999 Constitution, signed into law in 2018. Section 137(3) states that someone who has been sworn in twice as president cannot run again.

Critics of Mr Jonathan’s ambition argue that since he was sworn in to finish Mr Yar’Adua’s term in 2010 and again after winning the 2011 election, running again would mean a third presidential term.

Supporters, though, say that the constitutional change cannot apply to him retroactively since it took effect three years after he left office. The issue reached the courts in 2022 when the Federal High Court in Yenagoa ruled in favor of Mr Jonathan’s eligibility. The judge, Isa Dashen, stated that the constitutional change could not be applied retroactively.

Last Tuesday, the Federal High Court in Abuja again confirmed that decision. Judge Peter Lifu dismissed a suit aimed at blocking Mr Jonathan from participating in the race, stating that earlier court rulings had settled the eligibility issue. So, he ruled that there was no constitutional reason to stop him from running again.

Even with that ruling, legal questions remain as the case has moved to the Appeal Court.

Solu Bakare, a senior constitutional lawyer, agrees with the lower court’s decision. He told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr Jonathan has not used up his allowed time in office according to the law.

“This Jonathan case, was he a president for two terms? I’ll argue that he wasn’t because the supposed first term, he wasn’t elected president, but was a running mate to the then-president.

“He didn’t run for the presidency at that time; he only got there as vice president or running mate to the then president. Because of that, I’ll say he still has that chance to go for another term. He initially didn’t run for the election; he only completed the term of the former president,” the lawyer said.

Mr Bakare did agree that only the court has the final say on interpreting the Constitution and making binding decisions on eligibility.

“His win could be contested because there are many grey areas until the court decides. For example, during the Shagari-Awolowo case about the two-thirds (of 19 states), until the Supreme Court said this was the best interpretation and what the court says is final, especially the Supreme Court.”

Zoning Politics and Jonathan’s Possible Advantage

If the court rules in favor of Mr Jonathan again, the discussion will then focus on whether the zoning arrangement will benefit him. Mr Jonathan is from Bayelsa in the south-south region.

With President Bola Tinubu, also from the South, seeking a second term, many politicians, even in the PDP, believe the presidency should stay in the South until 2031, following the informal power rotation principle among Nigeria’s political class.

While the Nigerian constitution does not recognize zoning, it has remained a powerful political tradition since democracy returned in 1999. This principle was created to balance power between the North and the South and lessen ethnic and regional tensions in Nigeria’s diverse political system.

Inside the PDP, zoning became more controversial after the party put forth former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, as its candidate for the 2023 election, despite calls for the ticket to go to the South after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in office.

This decision led to rebellion within the party and significantly weakened the PDP ahead of the elections. Some governors and influential leaders openly opposed the party’s presidential ticket, saying the PDP went against its own principles of fairness and rotation.

In this context, some PDP members now see Mr Jonathan as a potentially acceptable southern candidate who could gain broader support across the country.

Jonathan’s Electoral Strength

Mr Jonathan’s real electoral strength, years after leaving office, is also up for discussion. Although his public image has improved since 2015, being popular does not guarantee electoral success in Nigeria’s competitive political scene.

One big worry is whether Mr Jonathan still has the grassroots political networks needed for a successful national campaign. Since leaving office, he has largely distanced himself from active politics and has not kept the type of political organization that leading presidential candidates usually have. The former president has avoided PDP meetings and events.

Unlike in 2011 and 2015 when he controlled the federal government and the PDP’s national structure, Mr Jonathan currently lacks a clear political base within the divided opposition.

Political watchers also wonder if he can gain the same level of support in northern Nigeria, where dissatisfaction with his handling of insecurity played a major role in his 2015 defeat. While some northern politicians might back him for strategic reasons related to zoning and coalition-building, it remains uncertain whether ordinary voters in the region would welcome another Jonathan run after the divisive politics of his past administration.

There are also worries about generational politics. Nigeria’s voting population has changed significantly since 2015, with younger voters gaining more influence in elections. The 2023 election showed the strength of youth-driven political movements, especially on social media, where candidates face intense scrutiny and rapid mobilization.

From the look of things, Mr Jonathan may find it hard to connect with younger voters who want political reforms, economic opportunities, and a break from Nigeria’s traditional political leaders.

Another challenge is the financial and organizational power of the ruling APC. Presidential elections in Nigeria need a lot of resources, nationwide mobilization, and strong political alliances across the six geopolitical zones.

Some analysts believe that even if Mr Jonathan gets support from parts of the PDP, building a strong coalition to challenge the APC’s national structure would still be a significant political challenge.

Perception is also a factor. While some Nigerians now remember Mr Jonathan’s time more favorably due to current economic conditions, others still associate his administration with corruption, rising insecurity, and weak leadership.

That sense of nostalgia might not be enough to win over voters who are looking for new solutions to Nigeria’s worsening economic and security issues.

Could Jonathan’s Candidacy Split the Southern Vote?

Another worry about Mr Jonathan’s nomination is how it might affect voting trends, especially in southern Nigeria. If the former president accepts the nomination, he would join a crowded field of southern candidates.

Other southern presidential candidates include President Tinubu (APC), Peter Obi (NDC), Adewole Adebayo (SDP), Donald Duke (PRP), Dan Nwanyanwu (ZLP), Esther Okereke (NRM), Omoyele Sowore (AAC), Chibuzor Okereke (LP), and Mr Makinde (APM).

This is assuming Sandy Onor, the candidate from the Wike-backed faction of the PDP, does not run.

Political experts warn that having many southern candidates could split opposition votes across the South-west, South-east, and South-south. This makes it harder for any single candidate to stand out against the ruling party.

Such a scenario could indirectly help a northern candidate if one becomes the main opposition figure. Former Vice President Atiku is among the northern politicians whose plans continue to attract attention amid talks of possible opposition realignments.

The concern is not that Mr Jonathan cannot attract votes, but that his entry may complicate opposition plans at a time when many want unity instead of more candidates.

Implications of a Jonathan Candidacy

If Mr Jonathan accepts the PDP faction’s nomination and runs in the 2027 elections, the effects could be significant for both the PDP and Nigeria’s political scene.

For the PDP, his run could temporarily bring some factions together and give the party more visibility. His name recognition and political experience might help restore confidence among supporters tired of years of internal issues.

But a Jonathan candidacy could also worsen divisions within the opposition. Other candidates and factions may reject the process, especially if they see the adoption as lacking broad support.

There are thoughts that Mr Jonathan’s candidacy could also affect the political future of key opposition figures, especially Atiku. Some political watchers think the APC may not see a Jonathan candidacy as a major threat compared to younger or more vigorous opposition figures.

They argue that some ruling party strategists might prefer facing a familiar political figure whose past administration is open to criticism over security and governance problems.

At the same time, Mr Jonathan's return to active politics could spark discussions about minority representation, regional inclusion, and power distribution within Nigeria’s political system.

Critics might also question whether bringing back former leaders represents political recycling instead of democratic renewal.

Public Opinions

The President of the Campaign for Democracy (CD), Ifeanyi Odili, told PREMIUM TIMES that the former president is entering the race at a time that is not favorable for him, given the current dynamics in his party and the national political environment.

“He wants to contest at a time that is not favorable for him. Even while he was in power, he was defeated. Is it now that he’s no longer in power that he wants to win the election?

“I believe he’s being used by some people and unfortunately, at his age, he didn’t realize that,” he said.

On his part, the Archbishop Metropolitan and Primate of the Church of Nigeria, Henry Ndukuba, advised Mr Jonathan to resist the urge to run for the 2027 presidential election, warning that returning to partisan politics could harm the respected reputation and global standing he currently enjoys.