2027: Weak Opposition Boosts APC's Chances in Jigawa

The opposition in Jigawa State is struggling due to divisions among parties and a lack of unity to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The parties are split and uncoordinated, focusing more on internal fights than on taking on the APC and the government.

This lack of a united front has hurt the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Meanwhile, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) is almost nonexistent in the state's politics. Internal problems within these parties have made them appear less credible to voters, reducing their chances to effectively challenge the APC's hold on power.

The situation gives the APC, led by Governor Umar Namadi, a clear edge as the 2027 general elections approach. Defections from the opposition to the APC strengthen this advantage.

Political watchers have pointed out several reasons for the divided opposition in the North-west state. The presence of many parties, each with its own agenda, makes it hard to form a strong alternative to the current government.

Analysts believe this fragmentation will lead to vote-splitting. The anti-incumbent votes will be shared among many candidates, allowing APC candidates to win with less than a majority.

The situation is worsened by recent public disagreements within the opposition. Former Governor Sule Lamido, a PDP leader, made sharp comments about the ADC, showing a deeper divide. The open conflict between key opposition figures shows they cannot present a united front for the elections.

Instead of focusing on challenging the ruling party, the opposition seems caught up in fighting among themselves. This lack of strategy, focusing on who leads instead of uniting against the APC, suggests a tough road ahead for anyone wanting to unseat the government.

Mr Lamido backed the Independent National Electoral Commission's (INEC) decision to de-recognise the David Mark-led ADC. Speaking on April 4 at the PDP headquarters in Dutse, he said the commission was just doing its job to manage political parties.

The former Jigawa governor also criticized opposition members who moved to the ADC. He specifically mentioned former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Obi and Kwankwaso have since left the ADC for the NDC.

Mr Lamido said they do not have the “leadership temperament” needed to fix internal party issues. He argued that if they cannot handle problems in their own parties, they cannot solve Nigeria's bigger problems.

Mr Lamido, who was Jigawa State governor from 2007 to 2015 under the PDP, called the ADC takeover morally wrong. He mocked leaders for trying to “confiscate” a smaller party after leaving the PDP due to their own issues.

“You leave the PDP, a party with history and a massive foundation, for a minor entity like the ADC, which has no standing in Nigeria,” Mr Lamido said. “If you think you are strong enough to seize an ‘orphan’ party like the ADC simply, I find that immoral. It is like taking a biscuit, a piece of sugarcane, or a phone from a small boy. The question is: Is this how they intend to rule Nigeria?

“To me, it is not just about acquiring the leadership of the country; the process of assuming that leadership matters,” he said. “If, in that process, you create a loophole for INEC to latch onto, then the fault is yours. That is exactly what happened with the ADC,” Mr Lamido stated.

Mr Lamido emphasized his loyalty to his party, comparing the PDP to a permanent home, despite its challenges.

“The PDP is my only sanctuary. Yes, there are problems in my party, but why should I leave? You are asking me to leave my home to rent a small room like the ADC or NDC, but it won’t happen,” Mr Lamido stated.

He finished by questioning the strength of his former colleagues: “They left their home because they lacked the capacity to withstand the pressure. They went outside to find a small house, the ADC or NDC, and now they are being flushed out of that as well.”

Mr Lamido’s son, Mustapha, is the PDP governorship candidate for 2027.

Mr Mustapha came second in the 2023 governorship election. His first major political attempt was in 2019 when he ran for the Jigawa Southwest Senatorial District seat. Although he lost, that campaign introduced him to state-wide politics.

The junior Lamido, from the Birnin Kudu Local Government Area, has been confirmed as the PDP’s candidate for the 2027 elections. But he faces challenges in his local area, where Sabo Nakudu is the ADC candidate. Although the ADC has not officially announced his nomination, Mr Nakudu is claiming the ticket.

The ADC governorship primaries in Jigawa State were tense, leading the party’s electoral committee to suspend the collation process after protests from some candidates.

Speaking at the collation centre at the Tahir Guest Palace in Dutse, the chairman of the ADC Electoral Committee, Zaki Ahmed, admitted that irregularities, internal conflicts, and threats of violence affected the process.

Mr Ahmed, a retired deputy inspector general of police, explained that the shadow governorship election faced issues in several LGAs. He noted threats of violence in Gwaram and a lack of voting in Guri Local Government Area due to violent clashes.

After Mr Nakudu was declared the governorship candidate, a rival aspirant and key financier of the party, Bashir Adamu, accused the party leadership of betrayal in a Facebook video.

Mr Adamu, a former House of Representatives member, claimed the party manipulated the primaries to favour Mr Nakudu, who had just moved from the APC. He said the leadership ignored his efforts and investments that helped the ADC grow in Jigawa State.

The former lawmaker has filed a formal complaint with the ADC Primary Elections Appeals Committee, asking for the primaries to be cancelled.

Responding to Mr Adamu’s claims, the Jigawa ADC state chairperson, Sani Gumel, said only one person can be the governorship candidate. He stated that since Mr Nakudu has emerged, Mr Adamu and his supporters should support the candidate for the party’s success.

Mr Gumel urged Mr Adamu and other aspirants who didn’t win to accept the results for the party's progress in Jigawa State.

The chairperson acknowledged Mr Adamu’s contributions to the ADC in Jigawa, asking him not to be discouraged by the results.

“In any contest, there must be a winner, particularly in a democracy, but that does not mean those who did not win have no role to play in the party,” he said, insisting that the ADC remains united.

“After the contest, the party needs every member more than ever before, while individuals like Honourable Adamu must be respected and accommodated. Adamu is our leader and will continue to be a respected leader in our party. We are appealing to him to be patient and persevere through these democratic challenges to lead by example and provide a legacy worth emulating for the younger generation.”

Despite their political disagreements, insiders suggest Mr Nakudu could choose Mr Adamu as his running mate. However, analysts say it will be tough to convince him.

This challenge is mainly due to the state’s voting demographics. The voting population of the Kazaure Emirate, comprising Kazaure, Gwiwa, Roni, and Yankwashi LGAs, where Mr Adamu comes from, is smaller than Gwaram LGA alone.

The APC governorship candidate is popular in Gwaram LGA, boosted by the recent defection of federal lawmaker Shitu Galambi from the New Nigeria Peoples Party to the APC. Any candidate from the Kazaure zone will face a tough challenge in the general election.

The APC has a strong hold across Jigawa State’s key political areas, especially in the populous Hadejia, Dutse, Gumel, and Ringim emirates. This deep-rooted presence gives the incumbent governor, Namadi, a strong base as he prepares for his reelection campaign.

Haru Bala, a political analyst, said the recent mass defections of key opposition figures in the Dutse Emirate, led by the state Assembly Speaker, Haruna Aliyu, have strengthened the APC in the area.

Mr Bala said the speaker plays a key role in getting local lawmakers and constituency leaders to back the governor’s development agenda. This coordinated effort ensures that important projects and resources connect with voters, turning the APC's structural advantage into active campaigning for the upcoming elections.