Atiku's Influence in the 2027 Elections

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar is still in the race, despite Justice Peter Lifu's recent ruling that nullified all 470 candidates of his party (ADC) for the 2027 elections.

For almost a day, it looked like Atiku's campaign was over. Then, retired journalist and INEC Commissioner, Mohammed Kudu Haruna, confirmed that Atiku's candidacy was still valid. This came after the public reacted strongly to Justice Lifu's judgement.

As expected, conspiracy theories started to spread. Some claim the ruling APC is behind this to stop Atiku from defeating President Tinubu. The APC has denied these claims, saying Atiku and his party are imagining things.

Observers are now asking if Atiku will play a significant role in the upcoming presidential elections.

Anyone who says Atiku does not matter in Nigerian politics is not paying attention. He received 6,984,520 votes compared to President Tinubu's 8,794,726. With just two million more votes in 2023, he could have pushed the election to a runoff despite not hitting 25% in two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states.

You don’t have to support Atiku to see that he is a strong candidate. I wouldn't run for President at 80 years old, but Atiku is still in the game.

Some are already wondering what could happen if Atiku was disqualified from the 2027 presidential election. Whether through party issues or court rulings on his eligibility, this would have major political and regional effects.

Atiku is a key figure in opposition politics. If he was disqualified, discussions would begin about a united opposition ticket with other leaders like Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, or new northern figures.

Without Atiku on the ballot, his large northern support base might split among other opposition candidates, shift to local parties, or simply stay home on election day.

If Atiku leaves the race, the ruling APC and President Bola Tinubu would face a disorganized opposition. Historically, a divided opposition helps the ruling party by splitting the anti-incumbency vote.

APC supporters hope to win over northern voters who would no longer have Atiku on the ballot. Anyone watching how the ruling party welcomed opposition governors knows that an election without Atiku would open up the political market in the north. And it is clear who will be the highest bidder.

But the ruling party should be careful about what they want. Opposition parties and civil society groups are already saying that Justice Lifu must be following the APC's orders. While there’s no proof of this, disqualifying Atiku could lead to public distrust in the judicial system during elections.

Removing Atiku from the 2027 race along with other ADC candidates will be disastrous for the party and its supporters.

But let’s pause for a moment. The events of the 2026 US midterm elections were eye-opening for many. Voters who supported the Democratic Party said they were voting against Trump and his policies, which affected their lives.

The North has over 54 million registered voters. If Atiku is taken off the ballot, there will be a huge shift in the North.

The Northwest has over 25 million votes, making it the largest electoral group. Rabiu Kwankwaso and the NNPP did well there last time. The APC is also strong in that area. If there’s no major northern candidate like Atiku, Kwankwaso could become the main opposition figure. It wouldn't be surprising if frustrated northwest voters rally around Kwankwaso.

That doesn’t mean the APC won't have options. The ruling party will work with their governors in Sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna, and Katsina to get those votes.

But economic problems in the region mean those votes won't just go to the ruling party without some local support and agreements.

In the Northeast, Atiku's absence creates a gap that no other national candidate can fill. In 2023, Atiku received about 51.7% (around 1.7 million votes) in the region. He won five out of six states there, only losing in Borno, where Vice-President Shettima comes from.

Some experts say that without Atiku, opposition votes might split towards another coalition, like an Obi/Kwankwaso partnership, or people might just lose interest.

By the same reasoning, Borno and Yobe would likely lean more towards the APC, as Shettima would be the only top candidate from that region on a major ticket.

Unlike the core Far-North, voters in states like Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, and Niger often base their votes on security issues, religious balance, and local politics instead of northern unity.

Voters in the Middle Belt who supported Atiku before might shift towards Peter Obi or smaller parties like SDP. Despite the security and economic challenges, governors from APC states will do everything they can to ensure their regions support President Tinubu and the APC.

Voter apathy could also be a result of Atiku’s disqualification. If northern voters feel cheated by legal rulings against key candidates, turnout in areas that usually vote heavily could drop.

Some northern political leaders think differently. They would prefer a southern president until 2031 to keep power rotating between the North and South. Their only condition is that the southern leaders promise to return power to the North in 2031.

Even with legal challenges facing Atiku and his presidential ambitions, it looks like his campaign is moving forward. There is no stopping it until election day on January 16, 2027.

And the everyday Nigerian, who has suddenly become the main focus in this political market, doesn’t care if it’s the eagle or the kite that wins on January 16. All they want is a better future. That isn’t too much to ask.