Should Opposition Parties Boycott the Elections?

Let’s think about what would happen if opposition parties decide to boycott the elections coming up next year. How will this affect Nigeria and our democracy? Is boycotting really the best choice?

Recently, Cameroun and Tanzania saw opposition parties boycotting elections. But this did not change the overall results of the elections there.

In 2000, Cote D’Ivoire had a huge boycott from the opposition, leading to just 37.4% participation. The same thing happened in the Gambia's parliamentary election in 2002 and in Guinea in 2003. The same occurred in the Ivorian presidential election in 2020.

Opposition parties have started using electoral boycotts more often since the Cold War ended. With more democracies popping up in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Africa, there have been more contested elections. The percentage of worldwide elections that were boycotted went from four percent in 1989 to 15 percent in 2002. Between 1995 and 2004, nearly ten elections were boycotted each year on average.

In Zimbabwe, the opposition to president Robert Mugabe got divided over boycott talks in 2005. That year, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) lost 16 seats in parliament partly because they hesitated over a potential boycott, which hurt their registration numbers. After that, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangarai decided to boycott the elections for the new Senate, saying it would just approve Mugabe's decisions. This disagreement caused tension within MDC, with many thinking that not participating was a big mistake. The party broke apart, and the ruling ZANU-PF party won 49 out of 66 Senate seats against the split opposition. Tsvangarai later managed to unite the party for the 2008 elections, leading to a closer contest in seats between ZANU-PF and MDC. But he hurt himself in the presidential election. In the first round, Tsvangarai actually got more votes than Mugabe, but the government claimed he did not hit the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. In protest, Tsvangarai decided to boycott the runoff, which allowed Mugabe to win easily. Even though there was a power-sharing deal later that gave MDC a significant role in government, Tsvangarai's boycott let Mugabe keep his top position.

Election preparations need a lot of planning. Opposition parties should be encouraged to join in early so they don’t miss registration or hurt their chances. Too often, they decide to join too late to make a real impact. A boycott threat can help, but they still need to take part to gain the full benefits. Sitting out is usually a losing move.

If elections attract international attention, a boycott can work. The opposition's threat to boycott can raise awareness among international audiences, putting pressure on the ruling party to make changes. A notable example is South Africa in 1994. Mangosuthu Buthelezi, leader of the Freedom Party, boycotted the election and called it unfair. This action increased international pressure on Nelson Mandela. As a result, Buthelezi's threat led to the removal of the single vote system and changes to the constitution regarding local government.

Boycotts can also be effective when they are part of a larger protest campaign. If the opposition has strong support from the people and combines a boycott with protests, it can lead to change. A case in point is the 1996 election in Bangladesh. The Awami League organized huge protests and a boycott just two days before the election. Their actions forced the government to hold a new election, which the opposition managed to win.

The phrase "Boycott the boycottables" was first said by Chief Ojike Mazi Mbonu (1912-1956) in Nigeria. It was a rallying call for nationalism at the time. He successfully encouraged people to wear traditional clothes instead of English styles through his boycott methods.

Chief Ojike did not mean for people to boycott elections.

The first effective use of the word boycott happened during the 1964 general election. Since then, there has been debate over whether boycotts really work.

The boycott in the 1964 election was avoided thanks to Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe, who was the President then. The politicians knew that a boycott would not help them.

My advice to opposition parties is simple: don’t boycott. Sitting out is usually a losing move. Threaten, but still join in.