What Will Tinubu's Legacy Look Like?

The future of Nigeria is always a hot topic. Over time, people have talked about leadership, the economy, and the type of country we want Nigeria to be. This debate has caused a lot of tension in our history. Many Nigerians feel that their hopes and worries are tied to the country's fate.

People want a country that works for everyone. But I see how hard it is to separate feelings from facts, especially now that we are in an election season.

One sad part is that what political leaders say often becomes the main news, without proper check on the facts.

This is the kind of careful checking the Nigeria scenario building team tried to do twenty years ago.

I feel that reporters today are not doing enough to look into the claims made before the headlines are published. They should question the motives behind these claims and ask for proof before spreading them.

In November 2006, I had the chance to work with about 35 skilled Nigerians to create scenarios for Nigeria's future. We were guided by respected leaders like Father Matthew Hassan Kukah, Frank Nweke Jr., Ifueko Omoigui-Okauru, Pat Utomi, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Mansur Ahmed, Morin Desalu, Adhiambo Odaga, Olugbenga Adesida, Peter Wilson, Olusegun Adeniyi, Mosunmola Layode, and others who were part of the African Leadership Institute team. LEAP Africa, a civic group founded by Ndidi Nwunneli, the former CEO of ONE Campaign, invited us.

The team met several times and created four possible scenarios for Nigeria by 2025: Parambulator; Shine Your Eye; Jaga Jaga Republic; and We Don Win.

They made it clear that Nigeria needs serious change. They emphasized that we must take bold steps to transform the country and its economy. The team warned that “small, linear steps using traditional approaches, even if the steps are in the right direction, will not be enough.”

Using scenario methods to explore national growth and leadership shows how important it is to think beyond now. This helps us face tough choices and shape a better future for Nigeria.

Now, we are in 2026, twenty years after that exercise. Nigeria has experienced cycles of political promises and debates. Still, the questions from those scenarios are very relevant today. They give us a way to think about what President Bola Tinubu's long-term plans could mean for Nigeria. More importantly, they show us how our choices today could shape the future.

According to the African Leadership Institute, which worked with LEAP Africa, “the overarching thrust of the scenarios is that Nigeria can be transformed. The scenarios highlight the critical role of the people, lay out the choices before Nigerians and outline how the actions or inactions could shape the future.”

A scenario is not a prediction. The aim is to create possible futures and then look back to see what decisions today could make those futures more or less likely.

What happens if a country starts a tough reform but changes leadership before the reform can grow?

What could Nigeria look like in 2030 or 2031 if these reforms continue?

The best outcome for Nigeria is not just eight years of one person. It is about eight years of stable institutions. But given Nigeria's history of changing policies, which political setup is more likely to bring that stability?

One presidential candidate said in an interview with Arise T.V that despite reforms, “Nigeria is heading in the wrong direction today. I just need to reverse it.” Will reversing policies help or hurt Nigeria in the long run?

Nigeria has thought about its future through scenarios before, and those scenarios give us a way to think about today’s political choices. What Tinubu is doing could matter for a stronger economy and a better country.

For example, the change in the constitution to create a state police force is significant. For many years, state police has been a big issue in Nigeria's security talks. Now, the Tinubu administration has moved this from a long-standing political debate to a real constitutional path.

With state police on track, Nigeria can turn this talk into a working system, while also putting in place measures to prevent misuse.

This is not just about adding another layer of policing. State police would change how security is delivered, bringing police work closer to the communities they serve.

It is also vital to recognize the cooperation between the executive and legislature in pushing several important constitutional reform bills under Tinubu. From Ghali Umar Na’Abba, Aminu Bello Masari, Patricia Etteh, Dimeji Bankole, Aminu Tambuwal, Yakubu Dogara, and Femi Gbajabiamila to the current Speaker, Tajudeen Abbas, House Speakers have often clashed with the president on reform bills, even when they share the same party. Reforms need more than just presidential ambition; they need strong political leadership that can build agreement and create institutions to carry on reforms beyond the president's time.

Think of Nigeria like an old car with a carburetor. It uses extra fuel when starting up. Switching the car on and off wastes energy.

A country going through tough reforms also faces costs during the transition. The benefits are not always clear right away, and the system might not be running smoothly when political pressure rises. But turning off the engine and restarting can waste the progress already made.

Nigeria needs to decide its next direction. It can stay in “Parambulator” or move toward “We Don Win.” I believe the latter is where Tinubu’s long game is headed.

And so, the long game comes full circle.