Will Goodluck Jonathan Run for President Again in 2027?

The decision to choose Goodluck Jonathan as the presidential candidate for the Taminu Turaki faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a big topic in Nigeria as we look towards the 2027 elections.

"The party had already given our presidential aspirant the waiver. Like I said in the beginning, he was deputy governor, became governor, became vice president, became president, so we didn’t see anything that needed screening; and therefore, the party had given him a waiver. In other words, he had been declared and cleared as the candidate of the PDP for the presidential election, and that is President Jonathan," said Babangida Aliyu, who is the chairman of the Screening Committee and a former governor of Niger State, on 19 May.

Jonathan’s candidacy was later ratified on Saturday, 30 May. A member of the House of Representatives, Fred Agbedi, received the flag on his behalf.

While many Nigerians are questioning this decision, mostly based on constitutional issues, some have warned Jonathan. They say that running with a divided PDP could hurt his reputation as a respected leader since leaving office in 2015.

Jonathan has not publicly accepted or rejected the nomination. His silence has sparked more rumors in political circles. Some of his supporters believe he is checking out the political landscape before making a choice. Others think he may not want to give up the image of an elder statesman he has built.

Jonathan was Nigeria’s vice president from 2007 to 2010. He took over as president after Umaru Yar’Adua died in office. He later won the presidential election in 2011 under the PDP.

Jonathan’s Presidency

Jonathan’s time as president is still one of the most talked-about in Nigeria’s democracy. His administration saw significant economic growth, banking reforms, and advancements in telecommunications and agriculture financing. In 2014, Nigeria rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and briefly became Africa’s largest economy.

But, his time in office also faced issues with corruption, insecurity, and weak political direction. The Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east hurt public trust in his government. The abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls in 2014 led to both local and international backlash.

Politically, Jonathan went into the 2015 elections weakened by problems within his party, the PDP. Several governors and senior leaders switched to the All Progressives Congress (APC), a party formed to challenge PDP’s hold on power.

Jonathan lost the election to APC's candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari. This marked Nigeria’s first democratic power transfer from an incumbent president to an opposition candidate. His concession before the final results were declared was praised for helping to stabilize democracy in Nigeria.

Jonathan as a Statesman

Since leaving office in 2015, Jonathan has mostly stayed away from active politics. He has avoided PDP events and meetings, instead reinventing himself as a statesman and democracy advocate.

Through the Goodluck Jonathan Foundation and his work with various organizations, he has become a well-known election observer and mediator in Africa. He has participated in peace missions and election observations in countries like The Gambia, Mali, Liberia, Zambia, and South Africa. He has also served as a mediator in political disputes for ECOWAS and the African Union.

Many analysts believe his international reputation grew after leaving office, especially because of his peaceful concession in 2015. This stands in contrast to the political tensions seen in many African elections.

Jonathan has consistently pushed for electoral reforms, peaceful transitions, and democratic stability across Africa. His involvement in conflicts and democratic negotiations has earned him respect among leaders and international bodies.

Why Politicians Want Jonathan Back

The push for Jonathan’s return to power is driven by different political reasons. First, some politicians see him as a figure who can unite people across regional and religious lines. Unlike many active politicians, he has kept a moderate image since leaving office.

Second, supporters think that public frustration over economic hardship and insecurity has made some Nigerians nostalgic for his time in office. They now view his leadership more positively.

Third, some in the PDP believe that only a well-known figure like Jonathan can help the party recover before the 2027 elections. Fourth, if he runs and wins, Jonathan can only serve one term. This means power would go back to the northern part of Nigeria by 2031, following an unwritten rule of power rotation.

Yet, Jonathan’s adoption by the PDP faction seems risky. Turaki served as Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs during Jonathan’s time. Reports say the two have met privately to discuss the future of the PDP and the 2027 elections.

The PDP has faced internal crises since the 2023 general elections. There are serious divisions as different factions fight for control of the party. Apart from the Turaki-led faction, there is another group aligned with Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). This group is officially led by Abdulrahman Mohammed and is recognized by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The adoption of Jonathan by the Turaki-led faction shows the growing division within the PDP. Since losing power in 2015, the party has struggled with leadership disputes and disagreements over zoning.

By promoting Jonathan as a consensus candidate, the faction is likely trying to position itself as a legitimate force amid the PDP crisis.

But not everyone is happy. Some Nigerians say this move shows that big political parties cannot develop younger leaders and fresh ideas. Others believe Nigeria needs a new generation of politicians instead of bringing back former leaders.

Complications with the Opposition

The Jonathan adoption has become more complex due to competing developments in the opposition.

Recently, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde announced his intention to run for president under a proposed alliance between the APM and the PDP faction that adopted Jonathan. However, it seems the path is clearer for Jonathan since Makinde has recently emerged as the APM candidate.

Still, there’s the faction supported by Wike. They have chosen Sandy Onor, a former senator, as their candidate.

Right now, since INEC recognizes the rival faction, Jonathan’s nomination might not mean much.

Legal Issues Around Jonathan’s Candidacy

Another legal issue about Jonathan’s potential candidacy is whether he can run for president again.

The confusion comes from the Fourth Alteration to the 1999 Constitution, signed into law in 2018. Section 137(3) states that someone who has been sworn in as president twice cannot run again.

Those against Jonathan’s ambition argue that since he was sworn in to finish Yar’Adua’s term in 2010 and again after winning in 2011, running again would count as a third term.

Supporters believe the constitutional amendment doesn’t apply retroactively. This amendment started three years after Jonathan left office.

The matter went to court in 2022 when the Federal High Court in Yenagoa ruled in Jonathan’s favor. The judge, Isa Dashen, stated that the constitutional amendment could not be applied retroactively.

Last Tuesday, the Federal High Court in Abuja again affirmed that earlier decision. Judge Peter Lifu dismissed a suit that sought to prevent Jonathan from running. He stated that previous court decisions had already settled the eligibility issue. So, there was no constitutional reason to stop him from running.

Despite this ruling, legal worries remain as the case has moved to the Appeal Court.

Solu Bakare, a senior constitutional lawyer, agrees with the lower court’s ruling. He told PREMIUM TIMES that Jonathan has not reached his limit of time in office according to the law.

"This Jonathan case, was it a president for two terms? I’ll argue that it wasn’t in the sense that the supposed first term, he wasn’t elected as president, but he was a running mate to the then-president.

"He didn’t contest at that time for the presidency; he only got there as vice president or running mate to the then president. Because of that, I’ll say he still has that chance to go for another term. He initially didn’t contest for the election; he only completed the term of the former president," the lawyer explained.

Bakare added that only the court can finally decide on eligibility issues regarding the Constitution.

"His victory could be challenged because there are so many things that speak to the grey areas until the court decides it. For example, in the days of Shagari-Awolowo interpretation of the two-thirds (of 19 states), until the Supreme Court came out to say this is the best interpretation and whatever the court says is the final, especially the Supreme Court."

Zoning Politics and Possible Advantages

If the court rules in Jonathan's favor again, the focus will shift to whether zoning will favor him. Jonathan is from Bayelsa, in southern Nigeria.

Since President Bola Tinubu, also from the South, will be running for a second term, many politicians believe the presidency should stay in the South until 2031, following Nigeria’s informal power rotation system.

While the Nigerian Constitution doesn’t recognize zoning, it has become a major political tradition since 1999. This principle aims to balance power between the North and South and ease ethnic tensions in Nigeria’s diverse political landscape.

Zoning became even more controversial in the PDP after they chose former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, as their candidate in the 2023 election. This decision led to rebellion within the party and added to the crisis that weakened the PDP.

Some PDP stakeholders now see Jonathan as a candidate who could gain wider support across the country.

Jonathan’s Electoral Strength

Jonathan’s actual strength in elections, more than ten years after leaving office, is also up for discussion.

His image has improved since 2015, but popularity doesn’t always mean electoral success in Nigeria's competitive political scene.

A major worry is whether Jonathan still has the grassroots support needed for a successful campaign. Since leaving office, he has kept away from active politics and has not built a strong political network necessary for a leading presidential campaign.

Unlike in 2011 and 2015, when he had control of the federal government and the PDP structure, Jonathan currently does not have a solid political base in the divided opposition.

Political observers are also curious if he can get the same support in northern Nigeria, where many were unhappy with his handling of security issues, which played a big part in his 2015 loss.

While some northern politicians may back him for strategic reasons, it’s unclear if regular voters there would support him again after the issues during his time in office.

Younger voters are another concern. Since 2015, Nigeria’s voting population has changed, with younger voters becoming more influential.

The 2023 election showed the impact of youth-driven politics, especially on social media, where candidates face quick scrutiny and mobilization.

Given all this, Jonathan may have a hard time connecting with younger Nigerians who are calling for political reforms and new opportunities.

Another challenge is the financial power of the ruling APC. Presidential elections in Nigeria need a lot of money, nationwide support, and strong political alliances across the six geopolitical zones.

Some analysts think that even if Jonathan gets support from some PDP members, building a coalition strong enough to challenge the APC’s national structure will be a tough task.

Perception also matters. While some Nigerians now remember Jonathan’s time in office more positively, others still link his government with corruption, rising insecurity, and weak leadership.

This nostalgia alone might not be enough to sway voters looking for new solutions for Nigeria’s ongoing economic and security problems.

Could Jonathan’s Return Split the Southern Vote?

Another worry about Jonathan’s nomination is how it might affect voting in southern Nigeria.

If he accepts the nomination, he would join a crowded field of potential southern candidates. Apart from Jonathan, other southern candidates include President Tinubu (APC), Peter Obi (NDC), Adewole Adebayo (SDP), Donald Duke (PRP), Dan Nwanyanwu (ZLP), Esther Okereke (NRM), Omoyele Sowore (AAC), and Seyi Makinde (APM).

This is assuming Sandy Onor, the candidate supported by Wike, does not run.

Political analysts warn that having too many southern candidates could split opposition votes. This fragmentation would make it harder for any single candidate to challenge the ruling party effectively.

Such a situation might benefit a northern candidate if one stands out as the main opposition figure. Former Vice President Atiku is among northern politicians whose plans are still being watched closely.

The issue is not that Jonathan cannot draw votes, but that his entry could complicate things for the opposition when many are calling for unity instead of more candidates.

Implications of Jonathan’s Candidacy

If Jonathan accepts the PDP faction’s nomination and runs in 2027, the consequences could be big for both the PDP and Nigeria’s political scene.

For the PDP, his candidacy could bring some factions together and restore the party’s visibility. His name and experience might help regain trust among supporters who are disillusioned by years of internal problems.

Yet, a Jonathan candidacy could also deepen rifts within the opposition. Other candidates and factions might reject the process, especially if they see the nomination as lacking broad support.

Some observers think that the APC might not see Jonathan as a major threat compared to younger or more dynamic opposition figures. They argue that some strategists in the ruling party could prefer to face a familiar figure whose past administration is open to criticism.

At the same time, Jonathan’s return could spark political awareness in the Niger Delta, where many supporters see his 2015 defeat as a setback for the region.

His return to politics might revive discussions about minority representation and regional power sharing in Nigeria.

Critics may also question whether bringing back former leaders shows political recycling instead of real democratic progress.

Public Opinions

The President of the Campaign for Democracy (CD), Ifeanyi Odili, told PREMIUM TIMES that Jonathan is entering the race at a time that may not favor him, considering the current state of his party and the national political scene.

"He wants to contest at a time that is not favourable for him. Even while he was in power, he was defeated. Is it now that he’s no longer in power that he wants to win the election?

"I believe he’s being used by some people and unfortunately, at his age, he didn’t realize that," he said.

The Archbishop Metropolitan and Primate of the Church of Nigeria, Henry Ndukuba, urged Jonathan to avoid the temptation to run for president in 2027. He warned that returning to partisan politics could tarnish Jonathan’s respected reputation and global standing.