Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are changing political lines in the region. This is drawing African countries into a new conflict situation around the Red Sea.
These issues are linked to several crises. These include US and Israeli military actions against Iran, renewed Houthi attacks on shipping routes, Saudi-Emirati competition in the Horn of Africa, and arguments among African nations about sovereignty and influence.
If these crises worsen and feed off each other, the results for African nations around the Red Sea could be serious.
The latest US and Israeli actions against Iran add to these tensions. Iran's responses to Gulf countries have raised doubts about whether the US can be trusted to protect its Gulf allies.
This situation is causing regional powers, especially the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, to change their strategies. Their previous cooperation to counter Iranian power is now strained due to their differing views on how to lead in the region.
Abu Dhabi shows its power through investments in ports and infrastructure. It also connects with non-state armed groups and secessionist movements in Yemen, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia. Since normalizing relations with Israel in 2020, Abu Dhabi has strengthened ties with Jerusalem.
Riyadh is trying to weaken Abu Dhabi's influence by supporting established state authorities and forming partnerships with regional allies. Its closer ties with Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey show its aim to build strong state alliances and limit the UAE's power and ties with Israel.
This changing security situation increases the stakes for African countries along the Red Sea. They can provide access to ports, airfields, and security partnerships.
Ethiopia, which is landlocked, wants sea access to lessen its reliance on Djibouti. Somaliland's Berbera port is appealing because the Emirati company, DP World, has developed it into an economic zone and transport link to Ethiopia.
But after the controversial 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, Ethiopia and Somalia committed to respecting each other's borders in the Turkish-brokered Ankara Declaration. They agreed to discuss Ethiopia's commercial sea access under Somalia's authority.
Despite this, Ethiopia remains involved in Gulf competition. Turkey is now a key mediator between Ethiopia and Somalia, while the UAE maintains strong commercial ties with both Ethiopia and Somaliland.
At the same time, reports from 2026 claimed that UAE-linked training and logistics networks were supporting Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from Ethiopian soil, which both Ethiopia and the UAE denied. This has heightened tensions in the region.
Egypt controls the Suez Canal and has strong military and naval forces. It sits at the northern end of the Red Sea. Any disruption around the Bab al-Mandab Strait affects Suez traffic and Egyptian income. Instability in Sudan and Somalia also threatens Egypt's security.
Egypt's long-standing rivalry with Ethiopia has brought it closer to Saudi Arabia. Tensions have grown since the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam opened in September 2025 and Ethiopia announced plans for three more dams on the Blue Nile.
Cairo has reacted by working to challenge Addis Ababa, opposing Ethiopia's claims to sea access and control over the Blue Nile waters, while strengthening ties with Eritrea.
Sudan's geography is valuable to Gulf nations during the ongoing conflict. Port Sudan is a key entry for weapons, logistics, and personnel. The UAE has faced allegations of supporting the RSF, which it denies. Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have generally maintained closer ties with the Sudanese Armed Forces.
Somalia's federal government decided in January 2026 to cut ties with the UAE. This was rejected by Somaliland and Puntland, which have their own relations with the UAE. Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have increased their involvement with the federal government.
Europe also plays a role in this complex security situation. The European Union (EU) has a strong maritime presence through Operation ASPIDES, which protects shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and Operation ATALANTA, covering parts of the Western Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.
A July 2026 EU-Djibouti agreement on ASPIDES highlights the EU's need for African partners for access and support.
In Somalia, the EU runs a civilian capacity-building mission and a military training mission, along with anti-piracy programs. It is building maritime law enforcement and coast-guard capabilities in Mogadishu, Somaliland, and Puntland, focusing on accountable security and maritime governance.
This approach is quite different from Gulf powers, who tie their support to access to ports and political influence in the Horn of Africa.
As African countries along the Red Sea become involved in the rivalry between Gulf powers, how sustainable are these partnerships? How might they change?
Gulf investments in ports, logistics, energy, and other key areas are likely to keep increasing. This will lead to deeper security cooperation. Commercial deals might combine with defense and security commitments, creating a more attractive offer than what Europe can provide.
The risk is that African nations could become locked into rival security systems and political alignments that limit their options.
This puts African countries along the Red Sea in a tough position. They can either work together to direct external competition towards a shared development goal or continue fragmented bilateral deals that offer immediate investment and support for urgent security issues.
But the quick benefits of these individual deals might hurt long-term stability and development.
The African Union could support this by giving North and East African countries a key role in shaping the continent's relations with Middle Eastern powers. Their closeness to the Red Sea gives them more access and influence that could be used for the continent's benefit.
The big question is whether Africa will use this new opportunity for shared development or let it deepen divisions on the continent.
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