AI Growth Boosts Trade But Brings Financial Risks - UNCTAD

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving trade around the world. But this focus on tech goods and investments could create financial problems if demand drops.

This information comes from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in their latest Trade and Development Report for 2026.

UNCTAD said global trade in goods and services went up by 4.4 percent in real terms in 2025. They expect it to grow by about four percent in 2026.

But the report pointed out that this growth is based on a small range of products. AI-related goods, like chips and servers for data centres, are key to this growth.

These AI goods accounted for about one-sixth of global trade value in 2025. They contributed 42 percent to the overall growth.

UNCTAD warned that if demand for AI hardware slows down, it could take away a big boost from global trade.

The report also noted that rising prices have played a major role in the growth of trade values since March 2026.

"The AI boom shows signs of earlier financial bubbles. A fall in share prices could lead to selling and make credit harder to get beyond just the tech sector," the report stated.

The report pointed out that AI investment is focused mainly on advanced chips and model development in 2026. While this investment does not create many jobs, data centres are helping to boost economic activity.

UNCTAD said that investment is mainly happening in China and the United States, with Europe getting less benefit. Countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand are also seeing some benefits.

They projected that investment in US data centres would hit $400 billion in 2026 and around $600 billion in 2027. This shows a growth of about 300 percent in 2026 and 50 percent in 2027.

This is a big jump compared to a predicted seven percent increase in fixed investment across all sectors of the US economy in 2026.

"Without data centres, the investment picture would look very different," the report said.

UNCTAD also mentioned that the concentration of economic activity is clear in international investment. Global foreign direct investment (FDI) was $1.6 trillion in 2025, marking a six percent rise after two years of decline.

But the recovery is not equal across the board. FDI in developed countries rose by 11 percent, while developing nations saw a two percent increase, according to UNCTAD’s data for 2026.

The report said that the changing investment patterns come from geoeconomic fragmentation, industrial policies, and tech competition. These factors are influencing where money goes.

It noted that investors are focusing on capital and tech-heavy projects in key areas, like AI computing infrastructure, data centres, and critical minerals. This is instead of just looking for quick profits or cheap capital.