Lawyer advises caution on 2027 election predictions

Human rights lawyer Kola Alapinni, who has received the United States Secretary of State Award for International Religious Freedom, has warned against claiming that the outcome of the 2027 presidential election is already settled. He said that insecurity, vote-buying, and alleged influence over election logistics should not be seen as signs that the election results are predetermined.

Alapinni expressed his views while responding to The Economist’s take on factors that could affect the 2027 election. He released a statement on Monday titled, “A Forecast Is Not a Verdict: Why The Economist Misreads 2027.”

In an October 1 article called, “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” The Economist pointed out that incumbency, opposition fragmentation, religion, voter turnout, and political cynicism could benefit President Bola Tinubu, even with the public's dissatisfaction toward his government.

But Alapinni believes The Economist has turned the current political scenario into assumptions about the election's outcome. He stated, “A forecast is not a verdict,” and insisted that the political situation from the 2023 election should not be directly applied to 2027.

Alapinni specifically questioned The Economist’s view that the fragmentation of opposition parties could give an advantage to the incumbent. He recognized that the lack of a united opposition ticket might help the ruling party, but he noted that the political landscape could change before the election.

He said, “The Economist’s error is to treat the absence of a coalition today as proof that none can be punished into existence by January.”

The lawyer also disagreed with the idea that religious identity would solely guide voting patterns in the North and Middle Belt. He referred to The Economist’s mention of polling by SBM Intelligence, which, he argued, showed Tinubu trailing Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in Borno.

Alapinni wrote, “Low expectations are not consent,” arguing that insecurity and economic hardship could instead drive how people vote. He emphasized that the situation in the Middle Belt, especially in Plateau and Benue states, needed a deeper look than just religious factors.

He pointed out that insecurity, displacement, and disruptions to farming could impact voter turnout and access to polling stations. Some communities may not fully participate in the election due to these challenges.

Alapinni also rejected the claim that political cynicism would automatically lead to voter apathy. He said, “That misreads anger as apathy,” suggesting that Nigerians facing insecurity and economic issues might view the election as a chance to voice their displeasure.

He noted that electricity supply is another key issue that could shape how voters view the current administration. Alapinni questioned the reported spending on solar power at the Presidential Villa, while many homes and businesses still rely on generators or deal with poor electricity supply.

He stated, “If he does not provide power, he should not be voted for. That is the test the magazine never sets.”

Despite his disagreements, Alapinni acknowledged some points made by The Economist, particularly regarding the advantages incumbents have. He agreed that ruling parties could benefit from political resources and mobilization, while a fragmented opposition might struggle to unite support.

He recognized that insecurity and vote-buying could influence the 2027 election, but warned against treating these factors as proof that the outcome is already decided. “Influence over logistics and security agencies is a real risk. It is not proof that INEC will write a result,” he stated.

Alapinni concluded that while incumbency is an advantage, it should not be mistaken for public approval. He wrote, “A forecast that the disliked incumbent may survive is a statement about cash, split votes, and unsafe roads. It is not a statement that the record has been accepted.”

He emphasized that the final result will largely depend on whether Nigerians can participate in the election and exercise their voting rights. “Neither camp should read this as arrival. A week is a long time in politics. It is not yet Uhuru,” Alapinni said.