Obi and Kwankwaso's Move Could Change Politics in North-west Nigeria for 2027

Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have left the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). This change happened last month and is shaking up Nigeria's politics, especially in the North-west.

The North-west has been a strong area for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The APC has won presidential and most governorship elections in this zone since 2015.

The quick shift of Obi and Kwankwaso disrupted the opposition's plan to come together against President Bola Tinubu for the January 2027 presidential election. In April, opposition leaders made the "Ibadan Declaration" at an event hosted by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde. Key figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Obi, Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, and Aminu Tambuwal attended. But the plan fell apart within a month due to competing ambitions and legal issues within the ADC.

Obi and Kwankwaso wanted a party without legal problems and unopposed nominations for president and vice president, so they moved to the NDC. There, the party's founder, Seriake Dickson, who is a former governor of Bayelsa State, gave them the party’s presidential ticket.

Kamilu Fagge, a professor at Bayero University, Kano, says this defection is a big blow for the ADC and the opposition in the North-west. He told PREMIUM TIMES that when the opposition coalition was announced, it raised hopes for a strong opposition. But with the split, Nigeria might see a repeat of the 2023 elections, where three major candidates divided the opposition vote.

Fagge explained that Obi will likely keep strong support from the South-east and Christian communities in the North-central. But Kwankwaso's influence is mostly in Kano. "Most of Kwankwaso’s votes are concentrated in Kano," Fagge said. "He cannot even pull a strong showing in neighbouring states like Jigawa, Katsina, or Kaduna; he simply won’t be a crowd-puller there. In states like Jigawa, where Kwankwaso lacks popularity, the ADC is set to increase its vote share."

Kano has always been Kwankwaso’s stronghold. The youth there turn out in large numbers to vote, as shown in the 2023 elections. But Fagge argues that this youth base is now divided. Governor Abba Yusuf, who used to work with Kwankwaso, has teamed up with former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, and other influential politicians. This alliance is expected to take votes away from Kwankwaso’s base.

Kwankwaso, now with the NDC, might still do well in Kano, but it won't match his 2023 performance with the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). In the last election, various groups united behind him. Now he faces many new rivals alongside his old ones.

In the North-west, the political scene looks like votes will be split in three or four ways. This makes it tough for the opposition to succeed. Fagge believes that ADC's Atiku stands a better chance of gathering northern votes and improving his numbers in the North-east, North-west, and parts of the North-central.

Ibrahim Siraj, a political analyst at Bayero University, Kano, said the seven North-west states have been a stronghold of the APC since the party began. He explained that this dominance is partly due to the lasting influence of late former President Muhammadu Buhari from the zone.

Siraj pointed out that during the 2023 elections, both Obi’s Labour Party (LP) and Kwankwaso’s NNPP did not perform well in the North-west, despite Kwankwaso’s strong position in Kano. He said, "This political dynamic is unlikely to change soon, as voters in the region still lack faith in either Obi or Kwankwaso, whether individually or collectively."

In 2023, Kwankwaso’s support did not reach beyond Kano State. Obi only gained backing from the Igbo community and northern Christians. Despite the APC’s historical strength in the zone, Siraj said President Tinubu's support is not a sure thing. He pointed out that people in the North-west are feeling the impact of the administration's tough economic policies. These policies, which the president calls necessary reforms, have not yet improved the lives of everyday people.

While the shift between Obi and Kwankwaso could shake things up, Siraj believes it might actually help President Tinubu. The true test of the president’s support in the area will come from a fair electoral process.

Siraj added that President Tinubu benefits from the strong political structure the APC has in the region. The party controls almost all the state governments and holds most of the seats in the National Assembly (NASS).

"Also, there is no united opposition, as APC has succeeded in weakening and dividing them, preventing them from presenting a strong challenger," Siraj stated. "Atiku Abubakar may do well in the region, but if the 2023 experience is anything to go by, the opposition can hardly succeed with a divided house."

Siraj recognized that Kwankwaso is still a key player in Kano politics. But he said it will be hard for him to match the strong electoral showing of 2023. A major challenge comes from political divisions at the top of the state's leadership, which has weakened Kwankwaso’s strong political machine.

"First of all, we’ve been made to believe that he has parted ways with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who moved to the APC," Siraj explained.

"In moving to APC, the governor might have eaten into Kwankwaso’s structure because most of his team, from commissioners to advisers to LG chairmen, are from Kwankwasiyya."

He said this change has really weakened Kwankwaso’s ability to mobilize grassroots support for future elections. "Many of them played a key role in 2023. Those people will not be available to work for Kwankwaso again," he added.

Beyond losing supporters, Siraj mentioned that Kwankwaso now faces a strong, united opposition led by his former ally. Governor Yusuf has been able to unite major political players against Kwankwaso.

"Also, if you look around, you will see that there is an apparent gang-up led by Governor Yusuf, who has managed to bring together all the big names in Kano politics to challenge Kwankwaso’s hold," Siraj noted.

He added that the political balance in Kano State seems to be shifting away from the Kwankwasiyya movement, reducing its power in its stronghold.

"Many people also believe that Kwankwaso has lost control over Kano North and Kano South and that he’s left with only Kano Central, which used to be his traditional stronghold," Siraj added.