Nigeria's Unique Path to Development

The story of GSM may sound common, but it highlights an important truth. African countries like Nigeria don’t need to follow the same paths as Europe, America, or even Asia. Each nation should develop based on its own history and culture. I just listened to a fascinating discussion between Patrick Okigbo III and Professor Ha Joon Chang from Oxford University. This aligns with what Professor Chang suggests. For too long, African countries have been pressured to adopt certain methods, which have often led to economic stagnation. In March, the World Bank released a report about industrialisation, saying it has changed its view on the topic. After many years of discouraging African countries from industrialising, the World Bank now sees it as a valid approach. The challenge is that many opportunities for industrialisation have passed, making it hard for African nations to compete.

Back to the GSM story. According to Mallam Nasir El Rufai, when Nigeria looked to privatise the telecom sector, we offered it for just ₦1.00 to Vodafone, the largest telephone company at the time. Vodafone, taking advice from business experts, hired a top consulting firm to study the project. They wanted to know if it would be profitable to invest in Nigeria. After thorough analysis, the consultants returned with bad news. They told Vodafone, "No! That country is too poor! Most of their people live in abject poverty. They could only afford a million GSM numbers!" So, Vodafone withdrew. That left the door open for MTN, Econet, and Glo, who saw the potential. Contrary to the prediction of just one million phone numbers, Nigeria now has over 200 million lines. This shows how wrong these experts were. The GSM story is an example of how outsiders can misunderstand Nigeria. MTN has made 40 percent of its global profits from Nigeria since about 2002. Instead of being a risky investment, Nigeria is actually a great market for MTN.

I see the change in our telecom sector from a broader perspective. It got me thinking about other sectors and how our growth has not followed traditional patterns. Economic and social progress depend a lot on history. Nigeria's historical context is that we are one of many colonised nations formed by force less than 200 years ago. Many of our peers are still under colonial rule. We all know that the infrastructure built by colonial powers was not meant for the benefit of the locals but for their own trade. As a result, much of what we inherited began to fail soon after independence. Several factors contributed to this, such as mismanagement and the builders losing interest. In 1956, European nations met to discuss reducing their reliance on agricultural products from Africa. The Paul-Henri Spaak Report highlighted the need for Europe to create a self-sufficient agricultural sector. This was followed by the Rome Treaty in 1957, which established the Common Agricultural Policy prioritising food security in Europe.

The consequence of this pre-independence policy was that Europe pushed African nations to focus on cash crops like coffee, cocoa, and palm oil instead of food crops that could feed their citizens. Today, we still grow cocoa and coffee but not enough food. A significant part of African land is used for cash crops, while Africa suffers from high levels of malnutrition and food poverty. We are trying to address this issue with limited success under UN frameworks. I was explaining to some people last week that the push for African independence largely came from the USA after World War II. The USA pressured European countries like the UK and France to give up their colonies. This was a crucial factor in Africa's decolonisation. The USA wanted to be the world leader and couldn't do that while European nations still controlled other countries. The UK quickly yielded, especially after the 1956 Suez Canal incident, but France has not fully complied, leaving many former colonies struggling.

This shows how fragile Africa's infrastructure is after colonialism. It wasn't easy to manage what was left behind. We didn’t have enough trained engineers or technicians to build on what the colonisers left. It's no surprise that electricity, railways, roads, and factories began to fail as we tried to learn and manage our growing populations. It’s sad that we often criticise our past without understanding the history that shaped it. For a nation that is just 66 years old, we have progressed in many areas, despite our shortcomings. Comparing Nigeria to countries with centuries of history is unfair. We can’t judge our journey against that of Singapore or the UAE. We’re on a different path.

From an economic development angle, it's clear we need to take a different route. We must accept this path instead of judging it against how other countries have grown. We need to make the best of the challenges we face. On telecoms, we jumped from 440,000 landlines to over 200 million mobile phones. This was thanks to innovation from others. Today, we have a higher phone density than many European nations. Those who thought we couldn't do this misunderstood our culture. We love to communicate. This made us a goldmine for the telecom industry in 2001. Let’s look at how we are doing in other essential areas.

Water is a basic need for life. Without it, populations can vanish quickly. The growth of villages and cities relies on having water nearby. Water is needed for homes and farms. In some places, water resources are privatised, and people can be fined or jailed for saving rainwater. In Nigeria, we were left with a few water treatment plants after independence. For years, we faced water shortages as these plants struggled to serve growing populations. Corruption and inefficiency made things worse. Boreholes started to fill the gap, and the technology became cheaper. Today, boreholes provide water for about 70 percent of the population. There are environmental concerns about over-extraction, but for now, this solution has helped Nigeria avoid a major water crisis. Who knows how many governments might have fallen if we hadn’t found this alternative?

Electricity is another critical need that often gets misunderstood. Many Nigerians believe fixing the electricity issue would boost productivity, but we are still waiting for that day. Some wonder if cheap electricity would lead to more entertainment time. For now, an alternative is emerging, and some Nigerians mock it. In 2025, Nigeria spent N435 billion importing solar panels, which is more than some ministries get. Much of this was for government projects, with the rest for homes and businesses. We rank second in Africa for solar energy use, right after South Africa. Unfortunately, what the government provides doesn’t even add to the national grid, which is a big mistake.

In 1999, General Abdulsalami Abubakar handed over power to civilians and retired to his home in Minna, Niger State. I remember Mr Dele Momodu, the Publisher of Ovation Magazine, covering the General’s house, which is next to General IBB’s place. General Abdulsalami got solar panels to live off the grid. Back then, he reportedly spent about ₦7 million, which was a lot of money. Since then, solar energy has improved, and in the last decade, prices for solar panels have dropped by over 90 percent. Nigerians are embracing this technology to enhance their lives. This is nothing to be ashamed of; it's the future of electricity. Nigeria has a significant advantage for solar energy, receiving better solar radiation than many countries. Wasting this resource is a shame. Instead of complaining about energy, we should be taking advantage of this opportunity. The national grid has disappointed us enough. We should make solar a viable option for all, especially for small businesses and homes. Local manufacturers of solar panels are being encouraged, which is great. But if we can partner with China, which produces twice the global demand for solar panels, we should make that deal to solve our energy issues.

It’s interesting that instead of seizing this opportunity, some people criticise the government for installing solar power at Aso Villa. We often turn serious issues into jokes. Instead of demanding grid electricity, we should look for better alternatives. We need to show the productivity we promise. I worry about this transition, especially with the electricity situation in Abuja. Even though we are on Band A, the grid power is unstable. The distribution company often cuts power for money, damaging household appliances. Rain or wind usually leads to cuts too. These issues stem from years of vandalism. Renewables and self-generation can help us.

What does the future look like? I began by mentioning how the World Bank has now allowed countries like ours to industrialise. But the chances for cheap industrialisation seem slim. In the last month, over 100,000 people lost jobs in big tech companies due to AI efficiency. The world is changing with this technology, and we need to look for new opportunities. AI might help our industries compete better and reduce our reliance on imports. I believe opportunities are coming, but we must act on them and stop worrying about minor issues that don’t help anyone. Our nation can develop through this unconventional path. We might be slow to see this change due to cynicism, but we will get there. I’m reminded of Tai Solarin's wish for Nigeria: May Your Road Be Rough.

Robert Frost’s poem could apply to Nigeria’s journey to development:

“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I,
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.”