Signs of Change in Nigeria: A Look at Tinubu's Early Efforts

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu promised to make changes when he took office. These changes were needed, but they have put pressure on many Nigerians. Families are making tougher choices about food, transport, rent, school fees, and energy costs. Traders and small businesses are adjusting their profits due to changes in exchange rates, credit costs, and rising prices. Any discussion about the government's early impacts must start with this reality. Reform can lose public trust when the government does not acknowledge what people are experiencing.

The key question is whether the tough choices made since May 2023 have started to fix the issues that hurt Nigeria's economy. Are these changes reaching citizens more directly? The evidence shows an important but unfinished story. The Tinubu administration has not solved every problem in three years, but there are measurable early signs of improvement in areas like reserves, revenue, oil production, capital inflows, growth, education funding, and Nigeria's reputation with investors and development partners.

When President Tinubu took over, Nigeria’s public finances were in bad shape. Fuel subsidies were draining money that could have supported basic services. The Central Bank had large backlogs of foreign exchange, and various exchange rates allowed for unfair profit-making. Oil production was not meeting national needs, and public revenue was too low for Nigeria’s development needs. These problems limited the government's ability to fund services, protect the currency, and support businesses and households. Ignoring them would have provided short-term comfort but caused deeper issues in the long run.

One clear early sign is Nigeria's external financial position. The Central Bank cleared about $7 billion in foreign exchange obligations. This move helped restore trust in a system that many airlines, manufacturers, investors, and businesses struggled to believe. Since then, Nigeria’s net foreign-exchange reserves rose from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025. Gross reserves hit $50.45 billion by mid-February 2026. The balance-of-payments position also improved, moving from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022 to a $6.83 billion surplus in 2024. These numbers show a country rebuilding the resources it needs to meet external obligations, support currency stability, and regain trust in the foreign-exchange market.

This improvement is also reflected in how investors are behaving. Capital inflows jumped by almost 90 percent in 2025, from $12.32 billion to $23.22 billion, with foreign portfolio investment making up much of the increase. This should not be seen as a full investment boom, but it shows that investors are coming back to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market clearly shows this renewed confidence. In 2023, the All-Share Index was around 53,000, with market capitalisation around ₦30 trillion. By 2026, the index reached 250,000, with market capitalisation climbing to ₦160 trillion. This growth does not happen in a market where investors see only uncertainty. It reflects a significant reevaluation of Nigerian assets and a growing belief that reforms are positively changing the economy.

Inflation is a key indicator because Nigerians assess policy by daily expenses. When President Tinubu took office, inflation was at 22.41 percent in May 2023. The tough but necessary reforms around subsidy and the exchange rate pushed inflation higher, reaching 34.80 percent in December 2024. The recent figure of 15.69 percent in April 2026 shows a decrease, but it must be viewed carefully due to the National Bureau of Statistics changing the Consumer Price Index. The takeaway is that inflation has decreased from the severe stress of the adjustment period, but food prices and household costs need to fall further before many Nigerians feel the benefits.

The growth and revenue numbers show an economy gaining strength outside of oil. In the first quarter of 2023, before President Tinubu took over, the NBS reported real GDP growth of 2.31 percent. The economy was slowed by the cash crunch. By the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth rose to 3.89 percent and is expected to exceed 4 percent within a year, according to international financial institutions. Manufacturing grew by 3.29 percent, and the non-oil sector made up 96.08 percent of real GDP. From January to August 2025, total government collections increased to ₦20.59 trillion, up from ₦14.6 trillion in the same period of 2024. Non-oil sources brought in ₦15.69 trillion, which is about three out of every four naira collected. This shows the economy is still expanding, with much of that activity coming from where most Nigerians work and do business. The government now has more room to fund roads, schools, healthcare, security, and social support. The more Nigeria can fund public obligations from a wider revenue base, the less it has to face financial worries.

Oil production is key to the recovery because it is central to Nigeria’s foreign-exchange and revenue situation. In April 2023, before President Tinubu took office, Nigeria’s average crude oil and condensate output was about 1.25 million barrels per day. By April 2026, it rose to 1.663 million barrels per day. That is an increase of about 32.8 percent in total crude oil and condensates from April 2023. For an economy that relies heavily on oil for foreign exchange and public revenue, this recovery gives Nigeria more options to defend the naira, fund the budget, meet external obligations, and restore investor confidence in the oil sector.

NELFUND is one clear way the reform agenda is helping households. For many families, the biggest challenge with higher education is the burden of paying fees and living costs at the same time. By creating a public financing option for students, the government is removing one of the barriers that keep talented young Nigerians from school or causes them to drop out. As of March 9, the fund had disbursed ₦206.29 billion to 1,164,222 beneficiaries. Of this, ₦128.84 billion went to institutions for fees, and ₦77.45 billion went to students as living allowances. These figures show that the policy is addressing a real need across the country: education financing is providing vital support for families. We are seeing ongoing stability and growth in the education sector.

The new minimum wage also fits into this picture, though wage policy alone cannot solve inflation. President Tinubu signed the new national minimum wage into law in July 2024, increasing it from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 and shortening the review period from five years to three years. This increase responded to a real issue: wages had fallen too far behind prices. While wage policy alone cannot defeat inflation, it helps protect the lowest-paid workers during tough times. The larger goal is still an economy where incomes rise because production, productivity, and business activity are improving, with the government adjusting the wage floor from time to time.

Nigeria’s credibility in reform is also changing how the country is viewed internationally. This has practical value for foreign affairs. It influences how investors see the country, how lenders evaluate risk, how development partners engage, and how much confidence Nigeria brings to economic discussions. Institutions like the IMF and the World Bank have connected Nigeria’s current better economic stability to reforms. In May 2026, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s long-term sovereign rating, citing a stronger economic profile, higher oil production, domestic refining capacity, and changes in exchange rates. These are signs that Nigeria is beginning to regain credibility where capital, credit, and economic influence are discussed.

For those of us in foreign affairs, these domestic indicators relate directly to Nigeria’s international standing. A country can negotiate better when businesses trust its currency market, airlines and investors believe obligations will be met, and partners see improved fiscal management. Stronger reserves, a balance-of-payments surplus, renewed capital inflows, better revenue performance, oil output recovery, and education financing shape how Nigeria is viewed by investors, development partners, diaspora communities, and other governments.

Some may argue that Nigerians still feel pressure before relief from these reforms. This criticism is valid. But three years after President Tinubu took office, the honest conclusion is that the early results are real and important. Nigeria has rebuilt its foreign-exchange reserves from a weak position. It has shifted from balance-of-payments deficits to surplus. Capital is returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market has reached record levels. Public revenue has improved. Growth has continued despite challenges. Oil output has recovered from the low levels before this administration. NELFUND has opened new pathways for education financing. The minimum wage has increased. These are significant developments.

The focus now is to protect these gains, reduce inflation further, improve food supply, lower business costs, enhance infrastructure and energy reforms, strengthen security, and demand better spending from all levels of government. The early signs of change are beginning to show. The next step is to make these changes more visible in markets, classrooms, farms, workplaces, airports, hospitals, and homes.

Like Rome, Nigeria will not be built in a day. Development needs careful planning, disciplined choices, and steady action. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is laying that groundwork. This is the TinuBOOM effect: early signs of a country starting to regain its footing, rebuild trust, and set the stage for broader relief.