Signs of Change Under Tinubu: What Nigerians Need to Know

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu started his time in office promising reforms. These changes were necessary, but they are putting a lot of pressure on many Nigerians. Families are making tougher choices about food, transport, rent, school fees, and energy costs. Traders and small businesses are adjusting their profits because of rising exchange rates, credit costs, and increasing expenses. Any discussion about the government's early actions must start with this reality. People lose trust in the government when it does not understand their daily struggles.

A fair question to ask is whether the tough decisions made since May 2023 have started to fix the problems hurting Nigeria's economy. Are these fixes strong enough to help citizens directly? The evidence suggests an important but ongoing story. The Tinubu administration hasn’t solved every issue in just three years, but there are clear signs of progress in areas like reserves, revenue, oil production, capital inflows, growth, education funding, and Nigeria's reputation with investors and development partners.

President Tinubu took office during a time of serious financial problems for Nigeria. Fuel subsidies were draining government funds that could have been used for basic services. The Central Bank had a backlog in foreign exchange, and multiple exchange rates created chances for exploitation. Oil production was below what Nigeria needed, and public revenue was too low for the country's development needs. These deep-rooted issues made it hard for the government to fund services, protect the currency, and support businesses and families. Ignoring these problems would have provided temporary relief but could have caused more significant issues later.

One clear sign of improvement is Nigeria's external position. The Central Bank cleared about $7 billion in foreign exchange debts, which helped restore trust in a system that many airlines, manufacturers, investors, and businesses had been struggling to rely on. Since then, Nigeria's net foreign-exchange reserves have jumped from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025. Gross reserves reached $50.45 billion by mid-February 2026. The balance-of-payments position also changed, moving from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022 to a $6.83 billion surplus in 2024. These numbers show a country rebuilding what it needs to meet its obligations, support currency stability, and regain trust in the foreign exchange market.

This improvement is also reflected in how investors are acting. Capital inflows increased by nearly 90 percent in 2025, rising from $12.32 billion to $23.22 billion, mainly driven by foreign portfolio investment. This shouldn't be mistaken for a complete investment boom, but it indicates that investors are returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market clearly shows this renewed confidence. In 2023, the All-Share Index was around 53,000, and market capitalization was about ₦30 trillion. By 2026, the index reached 250,000, with market capitalization climbing to ₦160 trillion, marking a nearly fivefold increase. Such movement does not happen in a market where investors see only uncertainty. It reflects a significant reassessment of Nigerian assets and a growing belief that reforms are positively changing the economy.

Inflation is a critical indicator since Nigerians feel the effects of policy changes directly. When President Tinubu took office, inflation was already at 22.41 percent in May 2023. The necessary reforms around subsidy and the exchange rate pushed prices higher, hitting 34.80 percent in December 2024. A recent figure of 15.69 percent in April 2026 shows some easing, but this needs to be viewed carefully as the National Bureau of Statistics changed the Consumer Price Index. The key point is that inflation has decreased from the high levels during the adjustment period, but food prices and household costs need to drop further before many Nigerians feel the full effects.

The growth and revenue figures show an economy gaining strength outside of oil. In the first quarter of 2023, before President Tinubu took over, the NBS reported real GDP growth at 2.31 percent, slowed by a cash crunch. By the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth had increased to 3.89 percent and is expected to rise above 4 percent within a year according to international financial institutions. Manufacturing grew by 3.29 percent, and the non-oil sector made up 96.08 percent of real GDP. From January to August 2025, total government collections rose to ₦20.59 trillion, up from ₦14.6 trillion in the same period of 2024. Non-oil sources contributed ₦15.69 trillion, which is about three out of every four naira collected. This shows the economy is still expanding, and much of that growth is coming from the areas where most Nigerians work and do business. The government now has more room to fund roads, schools, healthcare, security, and social support. The more Nigeria can raise money from a wider range of sources, the less it has to worry about finances.

Oil output supports the recovery because it is central to Nigeria's foreign-exchange and revenue situation. In April 2023, before President Tinubu took office, Nigeria's average crude oil and condensate output was around 1.25 million barrels per day. By April 2026, it had risen to 1.663 million barrels per day. This is an increase of about 32.8 percent in total crude oil and condensates since April 2023. For an economy that relies heavily on oil for foreign exchange and public revenue, this recovery gives Nigeria more ability to defend the naira, fund the budget, meet external obligations, and rebuild investor trust in the oil sector.

NELFUND is one of the most straightforward ways the reform agenda is helping families. For many households, the biggest challenge in higher education is the burden of paying fees and living costs at the same time. By providing public financial support for students, the government is removing one barrier that keeps capable young Nigerians out of school or makes them drop out. As of 9 March, the fund has given out ₦206.29 billion to 1,164,222 beneficiaries, with ₦128.84 billion going to institutions for fees and ₦77.45 billion going to students for living expenses. These numbers show that this policy is meeting a real need across the country: education financing is providing practical support for families. We are seeing steady growth and stability in the education sector.

The new minimum wage also fits into this picture, even though wage policy alone cannot tackle inflation. President Tinubu signed a new national minimum wage into law in July 2024, increasing it from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 and changing the review period from five years to three years. This increase addressed a genuine problem: wages had fallen too far behind prices. While wage policy cannot fix inflation by itself, it does help protect the lowest-paid workers during difficult times. The bigger goal is to create an economy where incomes rise because production, productivity, and business activities are increasing, while the government adjusts the wage floor when necessary.

Nigeria's credibility regarding reform is also changing how the world sees the country. This has real value for foreign affairs. It affects how investors view Nigeria, how lenders assess risks, how development partners engage, and how much confidence Nigeria has in economic talks. Multilateral organizations like the IMF and the World Bank have linked Nigeria's current stronger macroeconomic stability to reforms. In May 2026, S&P upgraded Nigeria's long-term sovereign rating, citing a stronger macroeconomic profile, higher oil production, domestic refining capacity, and exchange-rate liberalization. These are signs that Nigeria is starting to regain credibility in places where capital, credit, and economic influence are discussed.

For those of us in foreign affairs, these domestic signs connect directly to Nigeria's reputation abroad. A country negotiates better when businesses trust its currency market, airlines and investors believe that obligations will be honored, partners see better fiscal management, and citizens abroad experience improved services from the Nigerian state. Stronger reserves, a balance-of-payments surplus, renewed capital inflows, better revenue performance, recovering oil output, and education financing shape how investors, development partners, diaspora communities, and other governments view Nigeria.

The strongest criticism of the administration may be that Nigerians still feel the pressure of reform before any relief comes. This criticism cannot be ignored. But three years after President Tinubu took office, the honest conclusion is that the early signs are real and historically significant. Nigeria has rebuilt its net foreign-exchange reserves from a weak position. It has moved from balance-of-payments deficits to surplus. Capital is returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market has reached record heights. Public revenue has improved. Growth has continued even in tough times. Oil output has bounced back from low levels recorded before this administration. NELFUND has created a new way to finance education. The minimum wage has been increased. These are serious changes.

The next step is to protect these gains, reduce inflation further, improve food supply, lower business costs, enhance infrastructure and energy reforms, strengthen security, and demand better spending from each level of government. The early signs of improvement are starting to appear. The next task is to make these changes more visible in markets, schools, farms, workplaces, airports, hospitals, and homes.

Like Rome, Nigeria won't be built in a day. Development needs careful planning, smart choices, and steady action. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is laying that groundwork. This is what we call the TinuBOOM effect: early signs of a country beginning to regain its footing, rebuild trust, and set the stage for broader relief.